09 Oct 2014

Democratic Base Is Not At All Enthusiastic About This Election

The Democratic base is significantly less engaged and motivated to vote this year compared with the Republican base. Across several indicators of voter involvement Republicans have a double digit edge while Democratic engagement is remarkably low. From Gallup: The only small upside for Democrats is that the enthusiasm gap isn’t

08 Oct 2014

South Dakota Senate Scramble: Independent Larry Pressler Gaining on Republican Mike Round

The the three way South Dakota Senate race might be very competitive according to a new Survey USA on behalf of the American News, KSFY TV of Sioux Falls and KOTA TV of Rapid City. It found Republican Mike Round leading with just 35 percent of the vote but Independent Larry

07 Oct 2014

Very Few People Paying Close Attention to the Midterm Elections

A month out from the election and still only a small sliver of the population is paying close attention to it. According to Pew research, last week only 15 percent of Americans said they were following the midterm elections very closely. That makes it only the fourth most followed news

06 Oct 2014

Polling Shows Why Senate Will Become Even More Gridlocked

What is remarkable about the latest New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll of every single Senate race is how predictable the results would be even to someone who paid no attention to the 2014 election and knew only the most basic information about American politics. At the moment the results almost

03 Oct 2014

Obama’s Midterm Drag This Year Similar to 2010 and Bush’s in 2006

Significantly more voters plan to use their congressional vote to send a message of opposition to President Obama than as a sign of support for him. From Gallup: The margin by which people are sending a message of opposition to the President compared to support is remarkably similar to the

03 Oct 2014

Control of Senate Might Not Be Determined for Months

This election control of the United States Senate hangs in the balance, but there is a good chance we won’t know which party ends up in control until possibly next year. At this point the polling indicates whichever party eventually wins control in the Senate will do so by only

02 Oct 2014

Predictably, Obama’s Immigration Delay Backfires

Apparently, first directly lying to a major constituency and then telling them they will be be thrown under the bus for crass political reasons is a bad strategy. From the Washington Post: Less than a month after President Obama announced he would delay using his executive authority to reform immigration

02 Oct 2014

The Tea Party is to Republicans what the GOP is to Rest of the Country

There may have been a brief time in the beginning when the so-called Tea Party movement was something that didn’t fall neatly along the basic partisan spectrum, driven by broad anger at Washington. But since that time it has effectively morphed into a synonym for conservative Republicanism. Gallup found eight

01 Oct 2014

A Very Bad Day for Sen. Pat Roberts

Things are not going well for incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts today. Efforts to force the Democratic party to put a candidate on the Senate ballot have failed. The Shawnee County District Court ruled that Democrats don’t need to replace Chad Taylor, who withdraw his candidacy earlier. Republicans wanted a

30 Sep 2014

No One Knows What the Big Political Issue Will Be Come 2016

I find articles like this from the Washington Post, “Why it might be time to sell that Rand Paul stock” rather silly because no one has any idea what will be the big issue over a year from now. Sen. Rand Paul’s best window for winning the 2016 Republican presidential