04 Nov 2014

What to Watch for Tonight in the Federal Elections

Watching the returns of the federal election this evening is going to be very simple. There is almost no chance of the Republicans losing the House so the important fights are in the Senate. Among all the senate races this year, only about eight are reasonably close: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia,

04 Nov 2014

A Reminder That We Do a Terrible Job of Managing Our Democracy

Among the numerous deficiencies our democracy has is the fact that the people who vote don’t actually represent the country as a whole. Pew Research shows just how big this divide is. Adults who likely won’t be voting this year tend to be much younger, poorer, ethnically diverse, and more

03 Nov 2014

Democrats’ Very Difficult Path for Retaining Control of the Senate

The Republicans are set to take the Senate this year. To understand why, you need to only look at how difficult it will be for Democrats to retain control at this point. To begin with Democrats need to win every election where they have any polling lead, which is not

30 Oct 2014

A Week Out, Things Are Looking Bad for Democrats

The election indicators are looking bad for Democrats. The only real solace for them is they are at least not historically bad. According to Gallup, Democrats hold only a small affiliation edge among adults, which normally translates into a big loss because the people who actually turn out to vote

28 Oct 2014

A Prediction About Election Predictions

A week out from the election I have a prediction about the professional election predictors. They are going to be very accurate because our federal elections have become extremely predictable. If you know absolutely nothing about the Senate races except for the result of the 2012 Presidential election, you could end up predicting between 80-97 percent of all Senate races correctly this year.

28 Oct 2014

Things Are Not Looking Good for Democrats

We are now entering the final stretch of the election and things continue to look bad for the Democratic Party. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is just about all bad news for the Democrats. The big number is the generic ballot. Among likely voters, 50 percent prefer the Republican

27 Oct 2014

Nationalization of Politics Continues: South Dakota Senate Looking Safe for the GOP

There was a brief moment where it possibly looked like the unusual three-way Senate race in South Dakota could create an indirect opening for Democrats, but that moment is over. Two polls released this weekend show Republican Mike Rounds with a double digit lead. The Marist/NBC poll has Rounds with

24 Oct 2014

GA Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn Has Narrow Lead

If there is one bright spot for Senate Democrats this year it is Georgia. Every poll in the last week has found Michelle Nunn with a small lead over Republican David Perdue. Nunn is performing much better than you would expect a Democrat to in a state won by Mitt

23 Oct 2014

Voters Like Democrats But Think They Are Incompetent

On a personal level the American people just seem to like the Democratic party better than the Republican party. Not only does the Democratic party have better favorable numbers than the Republican party; but according to Pew Research register voters also see Democrats as the more ethical party, the party

23 Oct 2014

Scott Brown Is Proof All Politics Is Now National

There is no better sign that our federal politics are becoming dominated by strong coherent parties than the unusual career of Republicans Scott Brown. He was elected senator in Massachusetts during a special election but lost in the next general. After looking around for other offices to run for in