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Things are Not Looking Good for Mary Landrieu

louisiana

Sen. Mary Landrieu

With less than a week until the Senate runoff election in Louisiana, things are looking pretty bad for incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu. The early vote turnout appears to clearly favor Republican Bill Cassidy. From the New Orleans Times-Picayune:

The number of people who cast their ballots early in Louisiana dropped off from the Nov. 4 primary election to the Dec. 6 runoff election in every statewide category except one: registered Republican voters.

About 85,900 registered Republicans took advantage of early voting for the Dec. 6 runoff, which was held during the week leading up to Thanksgiving, as well as Saturday. That’s almost 3,000 more than the number of people who voted early for the Nov. 4 election, and it amounts to a 4 percent bump in early voting overall from a month ago.

In addition the limited public polling shows Cassidy with a double digit lead.

Based on my research into top two primary system in Washington State, I continue to predict that Cassidy will likely get around 56 percent of the final vote and Landrieu will end up with roughly 44 percent. In Washington State the percent of the primary vote for all Republican candidates unusually very closely matched the total for the one Republican candidate that made it to the general election.

Of course if turnout skews heavily Republican on Saturday, Cassidy could end up doing even better than this basic prediction.

 

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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