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Louisiana Senate: Mary Landrieu Way Behind in New Poll

Republican Bill Cassidy is on track to easily defeat incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu.

The lone big outstanding election of 2014 is the Louisiana Senate race because of the state’s unique rules. The election which took place two weeks ago was technically an open primary and since no one got 50 percent of the vote, the general election takes place on December 6th.

A new survey from Vox Populi Polling shows Republican Bill Cassidy is on track to easily defeat incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D). The poll found Cassidy with 53 percent support, Landrieu with just 42 percent support and the remaining 5 percent unsure.

These unusual low turnout elections can be difficult to poll because it is tough to estimate the likely turnout, but these numbers are right in line with my personal expectations based on my previous examination of how the open primaries in Washington State predicted the general election results.

I suspect Cassidy’s share of the vote next month will be roughly equal to the entire share of the vote won by all the Republican candidates on the ballot two weeks ago and Landrieu’s share will similarly be equal to the total Democratic vote. That basic prediction puts Cassidy at 55.8 percent and Landrieu at 43.5 percent.

Photo by House GOP under Creative Commons license

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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