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MENA Mashup: Al Aqsa, Bibi, ISIS, & The Kurds

This kinda chickensh*t drives me bonkers… Kerry phones Netanyahu to apologize over ‘chickenshit’ slur

So while he has ramped up the pressure on Al Aqsa, the Settlement growth, and closing Gaza’s two crossings recently, Bibi’s actions on Al Aqsa, speak far louder than his words…

Netanyahu urges lawmakers’ restraint over Jerusalem’s Aqsa mosque

Daily clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the streets of East Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa compound, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, have been stoking fears of a new Palestinian Intifada, or uprising.

In a sign of concern that the situation could escalate, Netanyahu called in a statement “on all Knesset members to calm tensions regarding the Temple Mount and show responsibility and restraint.”

The Palestinians say Israel is looking to change the delicate status quo at al-Aqsa, the third-holiest site in Islam and the most holy in Judaism.

Under the rules governing access to al-Aqsa, which is administered by Jordanian religious authorities, Jews are allowed into the compound but are not permitted to pray.

Netanyahu has said Israel has no intention of altering the status quo, but far-right activists and lawmakers have been pushing for Jewish worship at the site.

Israeli police often restricts access to al Aqsa when concerned about possible violence there, only letting in women and Muslim men over the age of 40 or 50.

Here’s the Palestinian Ambassador’s response… Israeli attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque portend serious repercussions — Palestine’s envoy

Meanwhile, Bibi’s poodle in Cairo obeys his every whim… Egypt Expels Gazans and the World is Silent

Bibi has stirred up so much Arab angst, the Arab League to hold emergency meeting Sunday

The Arab League Council will hold an emergency meeting on Sunday at Kuwait’s request, the country’s envoy to the League said in a statement Saturday.

Aziz al-Dihani said the meeting would focus on the latest developments in the Arab World, and especially the Palestinian cause.

The Council will discuss the ongoing tensions in Jerusalem given Israeli “violations against the Al-Aqsa Mosque,” the recent Israeli offensive on Gaza, and the attack against Egyptian soldiers in the Sinai, the statement said.

Palestinian community officials say the wave of unrest gripping Jerusalem is fueled by a sense of hopelessness resulting from Israel’s policies in occupied East Jerusalem, which have left many young people with a sense that they have nothing to lose.

Bibi’s truly playing with fire…!

Moving along to ISIS…

So while Obama is ratcheting up our troops in Iraq, it begs the question…

Is this a joke?

The Shia government in Baghdad that the US created in the aftermath on our invasion NEVER HAD A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUNNI TRIBES OF ANBAR. US Special Forces and USMC had the relationship, one that the arch courtier Petraeus latched onto when he saw it worked. The post-grad students running foreign policy in Washington pissed that relationship away when they abandoned the Sunni tribes as part of their dream-world fantasy of a united Iraq, bound together by the results of purple thumbed elections.

Now, the ISniks are hammering home the lesson of their remorseless reaction to resistance. They are teaching through terror that the tribes should not expect help from the US. They teach that lesson by murdering all who in any way displease them. How many hundreds of men, women and children have they killed in the last week? The lesson is clear. Submit or die.

While this goes on, the Obama Administration dithers and waits for a miracle to occur, a miracle in which the Shia decide to share power with the Sunni Arabs. This miracle will NEVER happen.

How long does Dempsey think he has before all is lost in Anbar? How long? pl

I’d asked Col. Lang, if he thought Iraq’s new PM, Abadi, was willing or even capable of supporting the Sunnis/Ba’athists in Anbar, and he quickly dispensed with that foolish notion…!

Now, let’s look at some recent analysis of ISIS on the ground…

ISIL might be tactically clever but is strategically stupid

…They managed to topple the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and forced the Shi’ites to form an inclusive government. Without ISIL’s threat this might not have happened. In fact, the current mayhem in Iraq is created by Sunnis but is temporarily being exploited by the ISIL.

The Ba’athists in particular exploited the ISIL for their own endings. ISIL did not have enough manpower, experts and tacticians to do what it did; the Ba’athists provided these expertises. They vented their revenge on the Shi’ites, Kurds and others who had supported the West against Saddam Hussein. They committed their vicious atrocities and terror through ISIL which already had a reputation for savagery. For the Ba’athists it could not get better; they committed the most vicious atrocities and ISIL was blamed for them.

The Iraqi Sunnis will turn against ISIL whenever they achieved their goals and they would oust ISIL as quickly as they supported it. ISIL would be in no position to resist a Sunni rebellion against it, despite all its barbarity. When ISIL’s Islamic caliphate shrinks in Iraq it will also do so in Syria.

Any strategist with a sound mind would understand that they could not rely on Sunni grievances to establish a permanent caliphate. The Sunnis are nationalists; they have not expressed a desire to form their own federal state. In fact, they have opposed a federal Iraq in favour of a unitary and centralised state. They oppose the Iraqi government not because they want a separate entity but because it is dominated by the Shi’ites.

ISIL has committed the most barbaric acts that modern humanity has seen. If an Islamic state or caliphate were to survive it could not be established through sheer terror and by continually committing barbaric atrocities. If the genocide of minorities such as Ezidis, Christians and others through mass killings, rapes, forced conversions and forced marriages were not enough, they displayed their savagery through public beheadings of American journalists, James Wright Foley, Steven Sotloff and others. These ISIL atrocities not only brought the international condemnation but forced the international community to mobilise its forces against the ISIL. A wise strategist would avoid attracting the ire of international community, at least initially, until their state is consolidated.

Should the Sunnis rise against ISIL and Iraqi and Kurdish forces initiate ground attacks supported by Western airpower, ISIL would be reduced to a very ineffective and small force, if not eliminated.

Indeed, ISIL made itself an easy target by occupying a territory. It managed to declare an Islamic caliphate momentarily but it is doomed to be defeated. Although it seems that the ISIL showed a clever tactic in occupying a large swath of territory and declaring an Islamic caliphate, it has strategically failed miserably by exposing itself to elimination. Only a stupid strategist would do so.

Another local viewpoint…

Uprising could trigger IS undoing, says study

A large-scale uprising from people living under the totalitarian regime of Islamic State (IS) is the most likely trigger that will lead to the undoing of the self-declared caliphate, according to an authoritative report into the jihadist group by the former head of counter-terrorism at MI6.

A detailed appraisal of the organisation, obtained by the Observer, says that, although IS has performed strategically well so far, its biggest challenge will be controlling dissent and coping with the difficulties of administration in the vast territory it governs.

The report by Richard Barrett, who headed the UN’s Al Qaeda and Taliban monitoring team and helped establish the UN’s working group on terrorism, is one of the most comprehensive portraits yet of the group and examines its genesis, revenue streams and cohort of foreign fighters along with its ambitions.

The social media platforms that IS has exploited successfully to disseminate propaganda will also play a key role in its demise by rapidly spreading discord among the six million people under its rule, the report states.

It adds: “The thirst for change that Islamic State has managed to exploit will not be slaked by its totalitarian approach towards its subjects. In today’s world, no state, however remote, can hope to control its population by limiting its access to information or suppressing its ability to think. It will be no more able to harness the social, economic, and political forces around it than were the states that, through their failure, allowed the space for Islamic State to grow.”

However, reality sets in…

US-backed forces in Syria suffer big setback

Al Qaida-backed militants Saturday stormed the base of the most prominent civilian commander in the U.S.-backed Syrian rebel force, forcing him and his fighters to flee into hiding in the Jebal al Zawiya mountains of northern Syria.

Jamal Maarouf, a contractor in private life, became internationally known for leading the successful offensive in January that forced the Islamic State from most of two northern provinces. His ouster from his own village was an enormous setback for him, the rebel forces and his international backers.

Even more ominous was that that the Islamic State, now far stronger and claiming to run a Caliphate in Syria and Iraq, reportedly had joined Jabhat al Nusra in the attack on the village of Deir Sinbul.

Wrapping up…

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