A Week Out, Things Are Looking Bad for Democrats
The election indicators are looking bad for Democrats. The only real solace for them is they are at least not historically bad. According to Gallup, Democrats hold only a small affiliation edge among adults, which normally translates into a big loss because the people who actually turn out to vote in a midterm election tend to be significantly more conservative than the population as a whole. From Gallup:
The divide this year is not as bad as 2010, but given that was a historically bad year for Democrats this is not much of an accomplishment.
There is also a chance that the GOP’s midterm turnout advantage will be larger this year than any previous election. The Democratic based skews much younger this year than it has been in the past, and younger voters are less reliable.