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Last Month’s Anti-Pot Poll in Colorado Appears to Have Been a Fluke

Somewhere in Colorado

Last month prohibitionists aggressively highlighted a Suffolk poll showing a majority of likely midterm voters in Colorado don’t support the new marijuana law, but now it looks increasingly clear that poll result was a fluke.

The September poll found 45.8 percent of likely midterm voters in Colorado agreed with the decision to legalize marijuana, while 50.2 percent disagreed. Yet their new poll out Wednesday tells a different story with a plurality supporting the law. The new poll has 45.4 agree with the decision to legalize, and only 44.8 percent opposed to the decision.

As I said at the time, it is important to keep in mind that this is a poll of likely voters in a low turnout midterm election. The people who vote in midterm elections are on average noticeably older and more conservative than those who turn out for Presidential elections. And registered voters tend to be a slightly older subset of all adults. That would mean we can assume from this poll that support for legalization among all adults in Colorado is much higher, which is what several other polls have shown.

This is of course why we look at the average of multiple polls instead of a single poll whenever possible. There is always the chance that any single poll can be an outlier.

Not surprisingly, I’ve seen none of the opponents of marijuana legalization who aggressively highlighted the Suffolk poll last month mentioning their more recent survey.

Photo by docmonstereyes under Creative Commons license

CommunityJust Say Now

Last Month’s Anti-Pot Poll in Colorado Appears to Have Been a Fluke

Somewhere in Colorado

Last month prohibitionists aggressively highlighted a Suffolk poll showing a majority of likely midterm voters in Colorado don’t support the new marijuana law, but now it looks increasingly clear that poll result was a fluke.

The September poll found 45.8 percent of likely midterm voters in Colorado agreed with the decision to legalize marijuana, while 50.2 percent disagreed. Yet their new poll out Wednesday tells a different story with a plurality supporting the law. The new poll has 45.4 agree with the decision to legalize, and only 44.8 percent opposed to the decision.

As I said at the time, it is important to keep in mind that this is a poll of likely voters in a low turnout midterm election. The people who vote in midterm elections are on average noticeably older and more conservative than those who turn out for Presidential elections. And registered voters tend to be a slightly older subset of all adults. That would mean we can assume from this poll that support for legalization among all adults in Colorado is much higher, which is what several other polls have shown.

This is of course why we look at the average of multiple polls instead of a single poll whenever possible. There is always the chance that any single poll can be an outlier.

Not surprisingly, I’ve seen none of the opponents of marijuana legalization who aggressively highlighted the Suffolk poll last month mentioning their more recent survey. (more…)

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com