New Poll Gives Republicans Eight Point Lead in Generic Ballot Due to Low Democratic Turnout
The news for Democrats is not looking good. The latest AP-GfK poll found Republicans with an eight point lead in the generic ballot among likely voters. This is the largest lead for Republicans in any generic ballot poll this year.
If the election was held today 32 percent of likely voters would back the Democratic candidate in their district while 40 percent would back the Republican candidate.
Similarly, the poll found only 39 percent of likely voters would prefer to see the Democratic party control of congress while 47 percent want to see it won by Republicans.
What is killing Democrats is low turnout from their potential voters. Among all registered voters Democrats are only losing the generic ballot by 3 points and tied when it comes to which party people want to see win control of Congress.
If Democratic field operations can drive turnout to unexpected levels they could theoretically improve their chances in several important races, but that is a very big if with the President unpopular, a relatively low stakes election, and enthusiasm so lacking.
Photo by Joe Hall under Creative Commons license