Things the election 2014 pollsters are not taking into account 2
The Pollsters all claim that GOP voters are more enthusiastic about this election. The pollsters however neglect to tell us just what do GOP voters have to be enthusiastic about? The GOP is playing down running against Obamacare or else they would have had the House do another vote to repeal Obamacare before the election (how many of these votes have they had already 3)? The GOP House is not threatening to shut down the government before the election to motivate their base. Where is the beef? er Red Meat for the GOP voter this election?
Republican private equity investor Bruce Rauner admitted earlier this year that he once favored the outright elimination of Illinois’ minimum wage.
This is just one example of the GOP being forced to eat vegetables not meat this election I’ll show other examples later on.
Bruce is running for Illinois Governor he now swears he does not want to lower the minimum wage but given all the GOP branding on getting rid of the minimum wage just who is likely to believe him except for the fawning media and of course the Pollsters who believe every thing is good for the GOP.
However for regular people and Authoritarians in particular a group that tends to vote GOP more. Backing down from such a publicly held position shows weakness and Voters especially Authoritarian voters hate weakness. Its one thing to lie publicly like every GOP Supreme Court judge does when they say they won’t make abortion illegal and they support civil rights GOP voters understand wink, wink, nod say anything to get the job. Its quite another to publicly give up on such a openly and widely supported position then to try and act tough after doing that is Ludicrous. You can after a fight yell, swear, shake your fist all you want but if your the one walking away from the fight everyone knows who one the fight.
October, 16th, 2014
New Public Policy Polling surveys in 6 states with highly competitive races either for the Senate or Governor this fall- Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Wisconsin- find strong support for increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, and that Republican candidates could face backlash for their opposition to the raise.
A majority of voters in every state supports increasing the minimum wage to $10.10, by margins ranging from 14 to 28 points
Voters in these six states say they’re less likely to vote for the Republican candidate based on their stance on the minimum wage by anywhere from 6 all the way up to 30 points.
In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is losing eight points of support by refusing to support a minimum wage increase. In Wisconsin, voters are nineteen percent less likely to vote for Scott Walker because he opposes raising the minimum wage.
CNNMoney’s American Dream Poll found that 71% of people surveyed favor a hike in the federal minimum wage.
The majority was strongly represented by both men and women. There was stronger support among Democrats — 90% of those polled said they supported an increase. But 54% of Republicans also agreed that the minimum wage should be raised.
My bold Its not just an Illinois fluke ideas matter and raising the minimum wage is a popular idea. The Pollsters however seem more adapt at gaging popularity contests and gossip than in figuring out which ideas are popular enough to effect elections. Remember Dems win if elections are about ideas and have high turnout. GOPers win if elections are about Gossip, hate, fear and have low turnout. When we got 54% of Republicans saying the minimum wage should be raised I think we have already won the idea war the GOP politicians just don’t know it yet.
Modern Polling assumes poor people don’t vote, but modern polling does not count cell phone only homes much nor the working over time or taking care of kids homes where people are just to busy to answer a poll.
We’ve noticed that the most deceitful attack ads often come from candidates who are most desperate. For example, consider the claim by Pennsylvania’s unpopular Republican Gov. Tom Corbett that his opponent “is promising to raise middle-class taxes,” when in factDemocratic nominee Tom Wolf promises to cut them.
Wolf has proposed increasing the state’s income tax — but only for those making more than roughly $70,000 to $90,000 per year for individuals, or more than $140,000 to $180,000 for married couples. For the large majority of Pennsylvanians, whose incomes fall below those levels, Wolf proposes to reduce or eliminate the income tax.
Furthermore, Wolf also proposes to cut local property taxes, shifting more of the burden of financing schools to the state. That would be an additional benefit to homeowners.
GOP Governor Corbett of Pennsylvania is not eating his vegetables instead he is telling people he has Red Meat for them but in reality he has meat substitue and pink slime meat by product to give his voters.
Imagine how angry his voters must be to get all worked up about Wolf increasing taxes only to find out Wolf actually wants to give them a tax cut granted unless they are rich.
How does Corbett’s lying not make every GOPer on the same state ballot down ticket also not look weak?
My guess is all those poor and middle class voters who would get a tax cut if Wolf is elected are not to busy to pay attention this election, heck even the pollsters notice whats happening. But they refuse to believe the trend effects down ticket races or is happening nationally, and with other issues.
Or lets put it another way who here thinks that every New Jersey voter who complained about not getting hurricane relief funding in a timely manner does not think Chris Christie was responsible?
Now then how many New Jersey voters honestly think that the other GOPers on the ballot knew nothing about what Chris Christie was doing despite every New Jersey politician getting thousands of calls and emails about when they were going to get hurricane relief money? But again the Pollsters are saying the GOP is doing just Great! Issues don’t matter only past voting patterns do!
the editorial board pressed Walker on whether he agrees with religious companies like Hobby Lobby that some forms of birth control, like emergency contraception and the intrauterine device, are akin to abortion. Walker’s previous support for a personhood measure and the pharmacists’ conscience bill suggest that he may be morally opposed to some forms of birth control. He also stopped enforcing Wisconsin’s birth control coverage law earlier this year
, the editorial board pressed Walker on whether he agrees with religious companies like Hobby Lobby that some forms of birth control, like emergency contraception and the intrauterine device, are akin to abortion. Walker’s previous support for a personhood measure and the pharmacists’ conscience bill suggest that he may be morally opposed to some forms of birth control. He also stopped enforcing Wisconsin’s birth control coverage law earlier this year.
But the governor avoided taking a position in the interview. “It all depends on what you define as birth control,” he said.
Walker then began to get annoyed at the line of questioning.
“Honestly, I challenge you to come out with me,” Walker said. “You’re not gonna find a day that goes by where any of the details you’re asking me about are things that are asked of me in great detail. So you can ask them, but we’ve got a limited amount of time, and I would think people would want to hear about the issues that matter most to them.”
Governor Walker is eating some vegetables. But Governor Walker now thinks that abortion does not matter to his base? Governor Walker knows nobody can win the GOP Presidential Primary without the support of those who want to ban abortion. Governor Walker knows this because every political adviser he has has told him.
The only reason Walker would risk his White House dreams is because his political advisors and pollsters told him he can’t win this election with just the support of the ban abortion crowd. I agree it is better to try and hold the bird in the hand than to try for the White House in the Bush.
If the GOP really were Winning a Wave Election then they would not be running from core principles like abortion and raising the minimum wage.
When asked if Kynect is part of Obamacare 76% of respondents said it was.
Asked if Mitch McConnell would make Kentucky jobs overall his top priority
only 32% of respondents said yes.
When asked who won the only debate between the two 58% said Grimes won.
Asked if they personally had a relative benefiting from Kynect/Obamacare 68% of respondents answered yes.
This last number was 11% higher than when the same question was asked during our
last polling on Sept 15, when 58% of the respondents said they had a relative who benefited from /Obamacare.
When asked who would best serve the interests of Kentucky 54% said Grimes.
Kentucky is our best case scenario we have Mitch who until recently ran against Obamacare 24/7 every voter knows if reelected Mitch will cut Obamacare if he can. Mitch is also our best example of a GOPer lying about Obamacare he claims Kynect is not Obamacare and Kynect would not be hurt if Obamacare was cut to bad for Mitch that 76% of voters don’t believe him. Why maybe because 68% of voters knew someone who benefited from Obamacare but somehow despite those previous numbers the pollsters want us to believe that only 54% of Kentucky voters support Grimes.
Its not only Kentucky
“More than eight million Americans signed up through the Marketplace, exceeding expectations and demonstrating brisk demand for quality, affordable coverage,” said HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. “In addition, over 4.8 million more people have been covered by states through Medicaid and CHIP programs, around 3 million more Americans under 26 are covered under their parents’ plans, and recent estimates show that an additional 5 million people have purchased coverage outside of the Marketplace in Affordable Care Act-compliant plans.
8 million plus 4.8 million plus another 3 million = 15.8 million and these are old numbers 68% of people in Kentucky say they know someone who benefited from Kynect/Obamacare lets assume that people in other states are only 10% on average less likely to know someone who benefited from Obamacare that means 58% of people nationwide have a reason to vote for Obamacare against the GOP assuming of course the Psychopath/No Empathy for others vote is not factored in. The pollsters seem to assume psychopaths all vote. I think past vote fraud in the last 2 Bush presidential elections have skewed their voter models.
According to a review by The Huffington Post of campaign finance records collected by the Federal Election Commission, the Center for Responsive Politics and press releases and news reports regarding spending by these groups, the Senate races in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky and North Carolina account for nearly half of all dark money spent to target 2014 candidates.
The other major Senate races that have attracted large amounts of dark money include Iowa ($11.6 million), Louisiana ($8.3 million), Michigan ($7.4 million), Georgia ($5.6 million) and New Hampshire ($4.3 million).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/dark-money-2014_n_5991978.htmlAlaska, Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia so out of the 10 states with the most Dark Money spending in this GOP *cough* wave election the GOP is spending the most money in 6 states that went for Mitt. Pollsters a wave election is like when the Tea Baggers won Ted Kennedy’s old seat in maybe the bluest state in the country its not when you target seats you should already have.
The GOP who are just a bunch of racists just lost the White House twice to a Black Guy lets face it its game over they have to live with Obama now. Without a Black Guy on the top of the ticket whats going to motivate GOP voters to vote now?
At some point every team except the Cubs losses enough games and the fans/voters just stop going to the games/voting booth honestly just what issues economic like raising the minimum wage, Obamacare, lying about tax cuts or social like abortion, Gay Marriage (the GOP is trying their best not to talk about that) is the GOP not retreating on? GOPers can yell all they like but everyone ( except pollsters it seems ) knows the guy who walks away lost the fight.
But unless Anonymous makes sure the GOP does not steal this election we very well may lose.