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Over Easy: Ebola Best and Worst-Case Scenarios

On Tuesday, the CDC issued a report based on an epidemiological model, that projected a top-range (worst-case) estimate of Ebola cases in West Africa- what the number could reach – by January 20, 2015 – as well as a best-case scenario. Voa News explains:

Between 550,000 and 1.4 million people in West Africa could be infected with the Ebola virus by January 20, 2015, according to a report issued on Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The top range of the estimate, 1.4 million, assumes that the number of cases officially cited so far, 5864 according to the count kept by the World Health Organization, is significantly underreported, and that it is likely that 2.5 times as many cases, or nearly 20,000, have in fact occurred.

The CDC epidemiological model is based on August numbers, and do not take into consideration the recent US government announcement that it will send 3000 troops into Africa as part of the Ebola relief effort. The best-case projection involves getting 70 percent of the patients into facilities where risk of transmission is reduced, as well as burying the dead safely, which could potentially bring the epidemic to an end by January 20.

Extensive, immediate actions- such as those already stated- can bring the epidemic to a tipping point to start a rapid decline in cases,” CDC said in a statement.

Voa News is also reporting that in Liberia, the number of Ebola cases has been doubling every few weeks, posing a threat to the social, economic and political fabric of the country, as it impacts forestry, mining and agriculture.

In the meantime, experimental Ebola drugs will be tested in West Africa. Ebola is an RNA viral infection with no current cure. Details regarding the testing are “under discussion.” Apparently, three drug companies are working with WHO, to develop fast-track protocols.

CommunityMyFDL Front Page

Over Easy: Ebola Best and Worst-Case Scenarios

On Tuesday, the CDC issued a report based on an epidemiological model, that projected a top-range (worst-case) estimate of Ebola cases in West Africa- what the number could reach – by January 20, 2015 – as well as a best-case scenario. Voa News explains:

Between 550,000 and 1.4 million people in West Africa could be infected with the Ebola virus by January 20, 2015, according to a report issued on Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The top range of the estimate, 1.4 million, assumes that the number of cases officially cited so far, 5864 according to the count kept by the World Health Organization, is significantly underreported, and that it is likely that 2.5 times as many cases, or nearly 20,000, have in fact occurred.

The CDC epidemiological model is based on August numbers, and do not take into consideration the recent US government announcement that it will send 3000 troops into Africa as part of the Ebola relief effort. The best-case projection involves getting 70 percent of the patients into facilities where risk of transmission is reduced, as well as burying the dead safely, which could potentially bring the epidemic to an end by January 20.

Extensive, immediate actions- such as those already stated- can bring the epidemic to a tipping point to start a rapid decline in cases,” CDC said in a statement.

Voa News is also reporting that in Liberia, the number of Ebola cases has been doubling every few weeks, posing a threat to the social, economic and political fabric of the country, as it impacts forestry, mining and agriculture.

In the meantime, experimental Ebola drugs will be tested in West Africa. Ebola is an RNA viral infection with no current cure. Details regarding the testing are “under discussion.” Apparently, three drug companies are working with WHO, to develop fast-track protocols.

Also, since Ebola does spread through bodily fluids, and since it can be transmitted from a dying and dead victim to the living, safe burial practices are a concern. Scientific American explains:

Unlike most pathogens, which cannot survive long on a corpse, however, Ebola does remain infectious after a person dies– for how long remains unknown. WHO notes that men who have survived the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to seven weeks after recovery, providing a glimpse into the longevity of this potent pathogen.

In July, Smithsonian addressed the issue of culture, burial practices, and generalized mistrust that occurs, when strangers from another culture and country come to Africa, to retrieve, bag and disinfect loved ones, who are victims of Ebola:

Telling people that they can’t bury their family members according to tradition can be agonizing, and in order to reassure the living and prevent further infections, health workers follow strict guidelines when disposing of bodies. The WHO’s typical burial guidelines for emergency situations extort (sic) workers to prioritize the living over the dead and discourage mass burials, which can be incredibly demoralizing.

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References:
CDC – Ebola- Ebola Virus Disease- What’s New

New Modeling Tool for Response to Ebola Virus Disease

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Jane Hamsher

Jane Hamsher

Jane is the founder of Firedoglake.com. Her work has also appeared on the Huffington Post, Alternet and The American Prospect. She’s the author of the best selling book Killer Instinct and has produced such films Natural Born Killers and Permanent Midnight. She lives in Washington DC.
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