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All Federal Politics Is National

Predicting 2014 with results from 2012

Over the weekend there were a slew of new polls from NBC/Marist and CBS News/New York Time/YouGov covering every single senate race and they almost all fit a clear and simple pattern. In states that traditionally go Republican in Presidential elections the Republican Senate candidates hold the lead, while Democrats are ahead in the states President Obama carried in 2012.

Of the 39 polls covering 36 states released this weekend only two races didn’t fit this pattern, Michigan and Maine. YouGov found that in Michigan Republican Terri Lynn Land has a single-point lead over Democrat Gary Peters, but this one poll also seems to be a slight outlier. All other recent polling finds Peters with a small edge and he still holds the lead in the poll average.

At this point it looks like the 2012 Presidential election could serve as a predictor of the 2014 Senate races. The current polling average shows Democrats are on track to win in every state Obama carried in 2012, besides Maine, and will lose every state won by Mitt Romney. Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-ME) long political history in a small state is the only thing ruining the pattern.

In addition, the two closest races at the moment are in North Carolina and Iowa. North Carolina was also where Romney won by his smallest margin. This is what you would expect from an ebb election, unlike a wave election.

If the current polling holds for this election it would show that the partisan alignment of the country is almost complete. In an era of strong and disciplined political parties, all federal politics is national not local.

Image by Renegade98 under Creative Commons license

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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