Ukraine Teeters on the Brink of Civil War and Invasion, or Not
Ethnic Russians began seizing government buildings and police headquarters in several cities in eastern Ukraine weeks ago. Just in the last day, shots have been fired and there have been a few deaths reported. BBC speculates on whether Russia is orchestrating the protests, While this morning on ABC’s This Week, Obama’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, came right out and accused Russia of doing exactly that on the grounds that they are just too well-coordinated for the local ethic Russians to have done on their own.
Just like the Obama Administration said about the largely bloodless secession by Crimea a few weeks ago. But really? If the majority ethnic Russians in the Crimea could pull it off, why not their cousins in eastern Ukraine? It seems the West just keeps on underestimating the intelligence, resourcefulness, and yes, courage of the Russian people. Napoleon did it. Czar Nicholas II, who really should have known better, did it. Hitler did it, and now Obama appears to be doing it. Will they never learn?
For its part, the right wing Ukrainian government in Kiev threatened a blood bath, but backed down some over the last day. Meanwhile, the protests continue, the occupations of government buildings continue, and the ethnic Russians show no signs of backing down, as this article about what is going on in Donetsk attests. Why should they?
They don’t want to be ruled by a bunch of hyper-Ukrainian nationalists who want to essentially make them second-class citizens, and are quite understandably leery of a government with openly Fascist and even neo-Nazi elements. Besides, they know full well that if the Kiev government actually does try for a forceful and bloody crackdown, Vladimir Putin won’t hesitate to send the Russian Army to their rescue. Even if military forces loyal to the Kiev regime resisted as best they could, I estimate the Russians could successfully invade and occupy the eastern third of Ukraine in a matter of days.
And there’s not a damned thing Obama or western Europe can do about it. Neither the American nor European militaries are going to allow a direct military confrontation with Russia–Ukraine is just not worth risking a nuclear war over, period. Besides, it lies in what has long been considered Russia’s sphere of influence.
Probably the best thing that could happen for Obama is for eastern Ukraine to go the way of Crimea, with little bloodshed, and for him to just shut up about it. Somehow, I don’t think he’s that smart. Maybe the Kiev government is. Time will soon tell.
Anyway, crisis or no crisis, it’s a beautiful day in northeastern Ohio, and I have errand to run and (gasp!) yardwork to do. I’m off, but I’ll be back. And have a nice day.
Historic Russian anti-nazi propaganda via Wikimedia Commons.