Analysis: Maine Voters Appear Ready to Approve Marijuana Legalization
On Tuesday the voters in Portland, Maine’s largest city, overwhelmingly approved a local measure legalizing marijuana for adults. The measure won 67.3 percent yes to 32.7 percent no. The obvious next question is what might these results tell us about opinions across the entire state.
Portland contains a large number of voters, but the city is noticeably more progressive than the rest of the Maine. Probably the most useful point of comparison in order to estimate how the results this week might translate statewide is to look at the 2009 election. It featured ballot Question 5, which legalized medical marijuana dispensaries and expanded the number of medical conditions that qualified for medical marijuana. It was also a marijuana reform issue on an odd year ballot.
| Portland % yes | Maine % yes | Difference | |
| Question 5: Medical marijuana dispensaries | 75.4 | 58.9 | -16.5 |
| Portland marijuana legalization | 67.3 | 50.8 *projected | *assuming -16.5 |
Support for Question 5 was 16.5 points higher in Portland than it was the in rest of Maine. Assuming Portland is 16.5 points more supportive of legalization than the rest of the state, Maine could theoretically have approved legalization by 50.8 percent if it was on the ballot statewide on Tuesday.
It should be remembered that turnout in these odd year elections tend to skew significant older. High profile elections normally get a much bigger youth turnout which helps marijuana initiatives perform noticeably better.
Obviously, since this a crude and simplistic analysis the result should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is very close to what most recent public polling has shown. PPP polled the state back in August and found that 48 percent of Maine voters in general thought marijuana should be legal, while only 39 percent thought it should be illegal. That is nearly identical to the level of support for the idea of marijuana legalization PPP found in Colorado a year before voters easily approved Amendment 64.
Based on the election result in Portland, recent polling in the state, and the historic patterns in marijuana polling, I’m fairly confident that if a well-written legalization initiative is put on the ballot in Maine, a majority would vote for it.
Analysis: Maine Voters Appear Ready to Approve Marijuana Legalization
On Tuesday the voters in Portland, Maine’s largest city, overwhelmingly approved a local measure legalizing marijuana for adults. The measure won 67.3 percent yes to 32.7 percent no. The obvious next question is what might this result tell us about opinions across the entire state.
Portland contains a large number of voters, but the city is noticeably more progressive than the rest of the Maine. Probably the most useful point of comparison in order to estimate how the results this week might translate statewide is to look at the 2009 election. It featured ballot Question 5, which legalized medical marijuana dispensaries and expanded the number of medical conditions that qualified for medical marijuana. It was also a marijuana reform issue on an odd year ballot.
| Portland % yes | Maine % yes | Difference | |
| Question 5: Medical marijuana dispensaries | 75.4 | 58.9 | -16.5 |
| Portland marijuana legalization | 67.3 | 50.8 *projected | *assuming -16.5 |
Support for Question 5 was 16.5 points higher in Portland than it was the in rest of Maine. Assuming Portland is 16.5 points more supportive of legalization than the rest of the state, Maine could theoretically have approved legalization by 50.8 percent if it was on the ballot statewide on Tuesday.
It should be remembered that turnout in these odd year elections tend to skew significant older. High profile elections normally get a much bigger youth turnout which helps marijuana initiatives perform noticeably better.
Obviously, since this a crude and simplistic analysis the result should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is very close to what most recent public polling has shown. PPP polled the state back in August and found that 48 percent of Maine voters in general thought marijuana should be legal, while only 39 percent thought it should be illegal. That is nearly identical to the level of support for the idea of marijuana legalization PPP found in Colorado a year before voters easily approved Amendment 64.
Based on the election result in Portland, recent polling in the state, and the historic patterns in marijuana polling, I’m fairly confident that if a well-written legalization initiative is put on the ballot in Maine, a majority would vote for it.
