We haven’t done this in shitload of fortnights, but….
I was exploring the outer fringes of the Internet where one risks staring over the edge and into the abyss (AKA Ann Althouse’s blog), I discovered that our Miss McMegan has taken up residence with a temporary blog until she fails ever upward to a new home and her book, Wrong Just Like Reinhart And Rogoff – But With Words! comes out. And at said blog, McMegan is being all McMegan-y in the ways that have endeared her to us, lo these many years.
Let me set the scene.
Using the broken decimal-points-are-irrelevant-for-my-purposes calculator in her head, she calculates that Republicans have about a 75 percenty-ish chance of taking the White House in 2016 because:
- Democrats don’t win back-to-back eight-year terms: “Voters just get tired after eight years.”
- Hillary and Biden are too old.
- Per Joe Scarborough, who is the Nate Silver of the morning mommy chat shows, Republicans don’t nominate crazy. Sarah Palin? Shut up. Never happened.
- Republicans will have “…a much more attractive bevy of candidates from which to choose someone electable” Paul? Cruz? Santorum? Perry? Rubio? Trump? Bush III: The Jebbining?
Now let’s turn this over to McMegan commenter David T, who goes and gets all mathy-wonky look-at-the-big-brain-on-David-because-he-knows-about-the-electoral-college on McMegan (printed in entirety):
….aaaand here is McMegan’s response to all that high-falutin’ researching and demographic hoo-haw, with the usual McArdle la-di-dah, “such is blogging” kiss-off:
I agree that age didn’t hurt Reagan, but 1) he looked preternaturally young and 2) men in general age better than women. You know that weird thing where women in movies and TV play the mothers of men who are only a few years younger than they are? It’s terrible, but the fact that it works tells you something about how the public perceives age and gender.
Moreover, we now know, as we didn’t before, that Reagan shouldn’t have been elected; he clearly had early Alzheimer’s in his second term. Don’t think no one will mention that.
At some point, we’re just going to end up arguing to argue, because you can always pick things that bolster your case. As I’ve tried to say, I’m far from certain I’m right–it’s a guess. But I will say I think structuralist accounts of the GOP’s demise are overblown. Ten years ago, the Democrats were looking like a permanent minority party to a lot of people . . . which makes me skeptical of similar accounts.
Ah yes, the Megan McArdle “I’m not convinced” parry.
The classics never go out of style…