Obama Leading Outside the Margin of Error
Two new national polls by major TV networks were released yesterday showing that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by more than the polls’ margins of error. The CNN poll found Obama with a seven point lead over Romney, the margin of error is ±3%. Similarly the Fox New poll found Obama with a nine point lead, and it also has a margin of error of three percent. They are just the latest examples in this trend.
In the past several weeks almost every national poll by a major news source has found Obama beating Romney by more than their margin of error. Earlier this week, the Reuters poll found Obama beating Romney by seven. The Pew Research poll from last week had Obama up by ten points. Similarly, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from late last month found Obama up by six.
Currently, the only major news organization not showing Obama with a significant lead is the Gallup daily tracking poll. The most recent Gallup tracking poll numbers does have Obama leading but only by two points, which is within the polls margin of error of ±2%.
The polling basically agrees that at this moment President Obama holds a modest but real national lead in the Presidential election. Most of these national polls are of registered voters so there should likely be a small improvement for Romney as polling firms switch to ‘likely voter’ models which tend to favor Republicans, but that alone should not close the gap. While there is plenty of time for the dynamics of the race to change before November, currently Romney is losing. Expect this to increase pressure on Romney to make a “big move” to try to shake up the race.