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Max Planck Institute: Expect a Fukushima or Chernobyl Every Decade or So

A roadside nuclear power plant.

Photo by Thomas Anderson

Imagine a situation within 100 years in which Japan, the northeastern USA and most of western Europe are all but uninhabitable because of one reactor disaster or meltdown after another, every 15 years.  Researchers at the Max Planck Institute have arrived at conclusions along those lines:

Catastrophic nuclear accidents such as the core meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima are more likely to happen than previously assumed. Based on the operating hours of all civil nuclear reactors and the number of nuclear meltdowns that have occurred, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz have calculated that such events may occur once every 10 to 20 years (based on the current number of reactors) — some 200 times more often than estimated in the past. The researchers also determined that, in the event of such a major accident, half of the radioactive caesium-137 would be spread over an area of more than 1,000 kilometres away from the nuclear reactor. Their results show that Western Europe is likely to be contaminated about once in 50 years by more than 40 kilobecquerel of caesium-137 per square meter. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, an area is defined as being contaminated with radiation from this amount onwards. In view of their findings, the researchers call for an in-depth analysis and reassessment of the risks associated with nuclear power plants. [emphases added]

These findings are not surprising to me.  How ironic that this assessment comes in the same pack of headlines that has one read:

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I doubt the American MSM will reflect much upon the findings of the Planck Institute, which conclude with this:

The team in Mainz found that in Western Europe, where the density of reactors is particularly high, the contamination by more than 40 kilobecquerels per square meter is expected to occur once in about every 50 years. It appears that citizens in the densely populated southwestern part of Germany run the worldwide highest risk of radioactive contamination, associated with the numerous nuclear power plants situated near the borders between France, Belgium and Germany, and the dominant westerly wind direction.

If a single nuclear meltdown were to occur in Western Europe, around 28 million people on average would be affected by contamination of more than 40 kilobecquerels per square meter. This figure is even higher in southern Asia, due to the dense populations. A major nuclear accident there would affect around 34 million people, while in the eastern USA and in East Asia this would be 14 to 21 million people.

“Germany’s exit from the nuclear energy program will reduce the national risk of radioactive contamination. However, an even stronger reduction would result if Germany’s neighbours were to switch off their reactors,” says Jos Lelieveld. “Not only do we need an in-depth and public analysis of the actual risks of nuclear accidents. In light of our findings I believe an internationally coordinated phasing out of nuclear energy should also be considered ,” adds the atmospheric chemist.

I doubt the NRC or any U.S. government or nuclear industry lobbying group is capable of such brutally honest reevaluation of the true costs of this awful, awful form of energy.

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Alaska progressive activist, notorious composer and firedoglake devotee.