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Obama Leads Romney by Eight in Virginia

It looks like President Obama has a good chance of winning Virgina again this election. He currently holds an eight point lead over Mitt Romney in the state, according to Public Policy Polling.

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

[…]

Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is 50% with 46% of voters disapproving of him. This marks just the 3rd time in our polling of the state since he took office that Obama’s hit 50% on that front. Meanwhile Romney continues to be pretty unpopular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably while 52% hold a negative opinion.

Virginia has traditionally been a solid Republican state in presidential elections, but changing demographics seem to have ended that. Obama managed to win the state in 2008 with 52.6% of the vote, though 2008 was a wave election for Democrats.

Fortunately for the Obama campaign his popularity in Virginia has remained decent. The fact that Virginia has done relative well during the economic downturn, with official unemployment of just 5.6%, probably plays an important role in Obama still having a net positive job approval rating in the state.

While it is still far out from November for polling to be very predictive, polling like this has convinced the Obama campaign that they should invest heavily in Virginia. This is why it is one of the two states selected for the official campaign kick off.

With 13 electoral college votes Virginia is a large prize. Perhaps most importantly, carrying Virginia would greatly expand Obama’s possible paths to 270. It would give him ways to achieve victory even without winning the traditional swings states of Florida and Ohio.

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Obama Leads Romney by Eight in Virginia

Barack Obama campaigning

It looks like President Obama has a good chance of winning Virgina again this election. He currently holds an eight point lead over Mitt Romney in the state, according to Public Policy Polling.

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

[…]

Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is 50% with 46% of voters disapproving of him. This marks just the 3rd time in our polling of the state since he took office that Obama’s hit 50% on that front. Meanwhile Romney continues to be pretty unpopular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably while 52% hold a negative opinion.

Virginia has traditionally been a solid Republican state in presidential elections, but changing demographics seem to have ended that. Obama managed to win the state in 2008 with 52.6% of the vote, though 2008 was a wave election for Democrats.

Fortunately for the Obama campaign his popularity in Virginia has remained decent. The fact that Virginia has done relative well during the economic downturn, with official unemployment of just 5.6%, probably plays an important role in Obama still having a net positive job approval rating in the state.

While it is still far out from November for polling to be very predictive, polling like this has convinced the Obama campaign that they should invest heavily in Virginia. This is why it is one of the two states selected for the official campaign kick off.

With 13 electoral college votes Virginia is a large prize. Perhaps most importantly, carrying Virginia would greatly expand Obama’s possible paths to 270. It would give him ways to achieve victory even without winning the traditional swings states of Florida and Ohio.

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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