Despite the media talking up Rick Santorum’s rising numbers in Iowa over the past few days, all the public polling still has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the top two spots, with only one day until the Iowa Caucus.

The Des Moines Register poll found:

Mitt Romney…….. 24
Ron Paul…………. 22
Rick Santorum….. 15
Newt Gingrich…… 12
Rick Perry………… 11
Michele Bachmann… 7
Jon Huntsman…….. 2
Other (VOL and specify:) –
Not sure………….. 7

From PPP poll:

Ron Paul is at 20%
Mitt Romney at 19%
Rick Santorum at 18%
Newt Gingrich at 14%
Rick Perry at 10%
Michele Bachmann at 8%
Jon Huntsman at 4%
Buddy Roemer at 2%.

From Insider Advantage:

Mitt Romney…….. 22.7
Ron Paul………….. 22.4
Rick Santorum…… 18.0
Newt Gingrich……. 16.1
Rick Perry…………. 9.6
Michele Bachmann… 5.8
Jon Huntsman…….. 1.8
Someone else…….. 1.3
No opinion………… 2.3

Given the small and often unusual turnout,  the Iowa caucus can be a hard event to poll accurately.  So it is conceivable that any of the top three or four candidates could end up winning, though Santorum has been rising while Gingrich has been falling. That said, the most likely outcome is that the public polling proves reliable and the top two spots are won by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Mitt Romney: the favorite of 20-24%

Despite the media talking up Rick Santorum’s rising numbers in Iowa over the past few days, all the public polling still has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the top two spots, with only one day until the Iowa Caucus.

The Des Moines Register poll found:

Mitt Romney…….. 24
Ron Paul…………. 22
Rick Santorum….. 15
Newt Gingrich…… 12
Rick Perry………… 11
Michele Bachmann… 7
Jon Huntsman…….. 2
Other (VOL and specify:) –
Not sure………….. 7

From PPP poll:

Ron Paul is at 20%
Mitt Romney at 19%
Rick Santorum at 18%
Newt Gingrich at 14%
Rick Perry at 10%
Michele Bachmann at 8%
Jon Huntsman at 4%
Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Congressman Ron Paul favored by 20-22%

From Insider Advantage:

Mitt Romney…….. 22.7
Ron Paul………….. 22.4
Rick Santorum…… 18.0
Newt Gingrich……. 16.1
Rick Perry…………. 9.6
Michele Bachmann… 5.8
Jon Huntsman…….. 1.8
Someone else…….. 1.3
No opinion………… 2.3

Given the small and often unusual turnout, the Iowa caucus can be a hard event to poll accurately. So it is conceivable that any of the top three or four candidates could end up winning, though Santorum has been rising while Gingrich has been falling. That said, the most likely outcome is that the public polling proves reliable and the top two spots are won by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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