Romney and Paul Continue to Lead in Iowa
Another day means another new poll of the Iowa caucuses and it is more good news for Mitt Romney. According to the Marist/NBC poll Mitt Romney leads in the state followed by Ron Paul in a close second. From Marist:
Here is how the contest stands among likely Republican caucus-goers including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and the difference from earlier this month:
- 23% for Mitt Romney (+4)
- 21% for Ron Paul (+2)
- 15% for Rick Santorum (+9)
- 14% for Rick Perry (+4)
- 13% for Newt Gingrich (-15)
- 06% for Michele Bachmann (-1)
- 02% for Jon Huntsman (No change)
- 07% are undecided (-2)
In an attempt to find some news in what is starting to become a rather boring contest a lot of ink has been spilled about the fact that some polls show Rick Santorum barely in third place. While it is theoretically possible a late rally of anti-Romney conservatives around Santorum could result in him gaining the almost 2 points a day he would need to even come close to winning Iowa, it seems very unlikely.
It is more likely Santorum will take third place and no one should spin that as an accomplishment. The man has almost no support outside the state and he basically put all his money, time and energy into Iowa. If after betting everything on a state which should have very favorable demographics for Santorum he still gets beaten by two other candidates, that is a defeat.
With only four days until the caucuses it looks like either Romney or Paul is going to take the top spot in Iowa. Either outcome is probably good news for the Romney campaign.