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MA-Sen: Another Poll Shows Warren In the Lead

I’m not sure I should be paying this much attention to polls with almost a year to go until the election, but given that the Elizabeth Warren-Scott Brown race incorporates all the themes of contemporary politics in the 21st century, particularly the 1% vs. the 99%, it’s worth pointing out that this message is resonating in an admittedly liberal state. Warren, who was initially 25 points down when she entered the race, now has a seven-point lead.

Warren leads Brown by a 49-42 percent margin, outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. That number includes voters who say they are “leaning” for either candidate. But even without the “leaners,” Warren still leads by a 46-41 percent margin, barely within the margin of error.

The poll of 505 registered Massachusetts voters was conducted for UMass-Lowell by Princeton Survey Research from Dec. 1 – Dec. 6, and shows Warren with her largest lead yet in the campaign. A UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll taken in late September showed Brown ahead by a 41-38 percent margin, so the new poll represents a 10-point swing in Warren’s favor in less than two months.

Warren did flub the timing of the second Red Sox championship, missing it by one year, so I’m sure these numbers will crater.

This isn’t necessarily important because Elizabeth Warren is now guaranteed to be Massachusetts’ next US Senator, it’s important because of the fear that strikes in the heart of the far right. I don’t even understand this latest attack ad from Karl Rove’s group. Apparently I’m supposed to get angry because Warren was hired to oversee TARP, and then a year later in a different capacity she talked to bankers (the “charm offensive” in question here refers to her time standing up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). Actually the point seems to be to just throw out words like “bailouts” and “financial meltdown” and “big bonuses” and then show Warren’s face. It’s politics as written by a six year-old.

And it’s not working.

Incidentally, Brown’s approval rating has dropped to 45%, as even the guy with the red truck cannot escape the anti-incumbent mood. Nobody in Congress is really safe from that scourge. Expect a lot of turnover next year.

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David Dayen

David Dayen