Four Way Split in Iowa Caucus

There is now a near perfectly even four way split between Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the Republican Iowa Caucus, according to the most recent Bloomberg poll taken by Selzer & Co. From Bloomberg:

A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away.

Only three points separate the fourth place Gingrich from nominally first place Cain in a poll that has a margin of error of 4.4 percent, making all four candidates essentially tied.

Iowa caucuses are relatively hard to poll accurately, but at this moment it is conceivable that any of the four candidates could win the Iowa caucus. As long as the split among voters stays fairly even, a candidate could in theory win a plurality with less than a 30 percent of the overall votes.

The other interesting finding from the poll is that with less than two months until the caucus, 60 percent of respondents said they could still be convinced to switch candidates. There is the potential for even more big changes in the race before the voting begins. For example, Gingrich has gotten a bit of a free ride from the media, but now that he has surged in the polls we will see if his new found support can survive a month of significantly increased scrutiny.



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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at