There’s a front-paged article on DailyKos called NY-09: Republican Bob Turner on verge of major upset
which analyzes the impending defeat of a Democrat in NY-09.
What caught my eye was this quote it contained, from a blog called The Brooklyn Politics:
One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.
Accepting this author’s point of view, I come to this conclusion:
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVEN’T TOTALLY GIVEN UP ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THIS BAD NEWS REPRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLOIT THE EXISTING (WELL-DESERVED) DIS-AFFECTION FOR OBAMA, AND TO ORGANIZE A SERIOUS DUMP OBAMA MOVEMENT THAT CAN STILL SUCCEED, AT THIS LATE DATE.
The downside of this ‘opportunity’ to dump Obama, is that a likely replacement will be just as bad. The Democratic Party is, currently, probably too corrupt to allow a really good candidate to arise. As was said of Memoirs of a Geisha, “this is not a love story”. In 2012, try as we might at this late date, there’s not going to be a happy ending with either the Dem or Repub presidential candidate.
But this just underscores that progressive need to think long term. Organizing a Dump Obama movement should primarily be looked upon as an opportunity for growing a movement, teaching and organizing, to secure significant victories down the road. The next step could be jeffroby’s Full Court Press. (See also here.) Or, for those people terminally averse to the Democratic Party, the next step could be the New Progressive Alliance.
UPDATE: I hadn’t read any of the comments at the dailykos blog when I posted, but I just read a few. It turrns out that this district has an unusually high percentage of Jewish voters – I gather at least 25%, from the reference – and many of them may have turned on Obama because of a belief that he’s not supportive enough of Israel.
Sounds plausible to me. Maybe somebody can look into this, more deeply. There’s probably polling that breaks down the Jewish vs. non-Jewish components of that district’s electorate.