(photo: Old Sarge)

Nancy Pelosi was asked whether the votes are there to implement the debt limit deal, and basically she said to go ask John Boehner. This suggests she at least wants someone to think that she’s not actively whipping the deal. And indeed, the Democratic leadership says they will not whip the deal. Meanwhile the Club for Growth, the main enforcer of primaries on the right, will not only oppose the deal, but they will score it and take it into account for their endorsements next cycle.

Despite all this, John Boehner says he has the votes, and the House will go first, as early as tonight, on a vote. But John Boehner has had several instances in his Speakership where he has not been able to count the votes right. Not just last week, but earlier on with a Patriot Act renewal and on other votes. He’s not a master vote counter. I think this one will have to play out. The final vote should be around 6:30pm ET tonight.

Let’s just move on to one other thing. Apparently Joe Biden said it would be impossible to “pivot to jobs” without putting in place this agreement. I think that’s just the most naive (or deliberately dissembling) thing I’ve heard in this whole debate. There will be no pivot to jobs legislatively. There might be rhetorically, but to someone out of a job for two years, hearing on the teevee that somebody cares about them is cold comfort. We spent 18 months seeing both sides of the aisle screaming about deficits. The idea that all that will just be dropped, and we can move on to job creation – which is about spending up front – is ludicrous.

And I have to share the viewpoints of other progressives today who are furious at the news media for just now explaining that anti-expansionary policies with spending cuts will actively harm the economy. It’s complete malpractice that this was only brought up at the tail end, when members of Congress can be put up against the wall and told they must vote for the deal to avoid “default” (an imprecise term, since bondholders have been told their debt would be paid in full). or a debt downgrade. But it’s the entire game. This deal will by itself kill 175,000-200,000 jobs, and by confirming this notion of deficit reduction being a boost to the economy, will waylay any efforts at stimulus or extending the meager policies already in place, sucking more money out.

Mohamed El-Arian has this right: “Unemployment will be higher than it would have been otherwise. Growth will be lower than it would be otherwise. And inequality will be worse than it would be otherwise.”

The ultimate loser in this whole thing is the economy. And expecting a “pivot” to save it is a fool’s errand.

Nancy Pelosi was asked whether the votes are there to implement the debt limit deal, and basically she said to go ask John Boehner. This suggests she at least wants someone to think that she’s not actively whipping the deal. And indeed, the Democratic leadership says they will not whip the deal. Meanwhile the Club for Growth, the main enforcer of primaries on the right, will not only oppose the deal, but they will score it and take it into account for their endorsements next cycle.

Despite all this, John Boehner says he has the votes, and the House will go first, as early as tonight, on a vote. But John Boehner has had several instances in his Speakership where he has not been able to count the votes right. Not just last week, but earlier on with a Patriot Act renewal and on other votes. He’s not a master vote counter. I think this one will have to play out. The final vote should be around 6:30pm ET tonight.

Let’s just move on to one other thing. Apparently Joe Biden said it would be impossible to “pivot to jobs” without putting in place this agreement. I think that’s just the most naive (or deliberately dissembling) thing I’ve heard in this whole debate. There will be no pivot to jobs legislatively. There might be rhetorically, but to someone out of a job for two years, hearing on the teevee that somebody cares about them is cold comfort. We spent 18 months seeing both sides of the aisle screaming about deficits. The idea that all that will just be dropped, and we can move on to job creation – which is about spending up front – is ludicrous.

And I have to share the viewpoints of other progressives today who are furious at the news media for just now explaining that anti-expansionary policies with spending cuts will actively harm the economy. It’s complete malpractice that this was only brought up at the tail end, when members of Congress can be put up against the wall and told they must vote for the deal to avoid “default” (an imprecise term, since bondholders have been told their debt would be paid in full). or a debt downgrade. But it’s the entire game. This deal will by itself kill 175,000-200,000 jobs, and by confirming this notion of deficit reduction being a boost to the economy, will waylay any efforts at stimulus or extending the meager policies already in place, sucking more money out.

Mohamed El-Arian has this right: “Unemployment will be higher than it would have been otherwise. Growth will be lower than it would be otherwise. And inequality will be worse than it would be otherwise.”

The ultimate loser in this whole thing is the economy. And expecting a “pivot” to save it is a fool’s errand.

David Dayen

David Dayen