Recent days have seen several articles and sentiments expressed by a Robert Springborg, professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, in Monterrey, CA. They found their way into NPR, Foreign Affairs, The Guardian UK, Reuters Africa, several left blogs – in short; they are making their rounds. The general gist of these dispatches from the arse of Empire’s academia seems, in as much as it describes the US , while calling Egypt’s Revolution a Fail, unbiased enough to be taken seriously – apparently as cynical as myself.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011 – 4:23 PM, Foreign Policy posted the article entitled Game Over: The Chance For Democracy In Egypt Is Lost. The opinion/analysis expressed started making rounds – what to make of it?
To those who fervently hope for the success of the Egyptian liberation, this sort of opinion may be quite disinflating — which, after all, tends to be the purpose of just such articles; to discourage domestic support for the plight of the Egyptians from becoming a domestic inconvenience; possibly driving other events.
The Egyptians are not one bit enamored of the USGov. The appearance of a dual role amphibian assault/civilian evacuation vessel soon to be stationed somewhere between Alexandria and the Suez may actually increase, and stiffen the resolve of the Egyptian public. Odds favor our elites remaining true to form, and forging straight forward into another clusterfuck.
The Kearsage is currently slouching chugging towards Bethlehem, er, Suez, er , Alexandria, and it does so not in support of democracy. Comparisons to Suharto’s Indonesia are being drawn, but with history rhyming rather than repeating; I’m thinking of 30 years of humiliation, degradation, and growing revultion, as well as the conscript nature of the Egyptian Army.
So perhaps when battalions from Luxor are transferred to Cairo and vice versa, we’ll hear of mothers telling their sons: “Son, as you pass them on the road going North, tell them not to shoot at your mother – I’ll be out there, with my people, standing for freedom.” The conscription in the Egyptian Army is of 1-3 year duration.
Springborgs article is not totally without merit, as it requires a modicum of serious analysis for it to expect to be taken seriously:
“The last challenge remaining is economic. Even before demonstrations broke out a few weeks ago, the economy was just limping along. It is now broken. Even in the best-case scenario of a rapid return to stability, Egypt faces a cash crunch. Capital flight, loss of foreign direct investment, drying up of tourist revenues, downgrading of sovereign debt and commensurate increase in interest, and lost earnings from interrupted production will all hammer the revenue side of the balance sheet. The expenditure side will be placed under yet more stress by acceleration of inflation already running at 10 percent, devaluation of the currency, and need to repair damage resulting from the clashes. Egypt will have to turn to its “friends” if it is to avert economic disaster and if the regime that just narrowly survived defeat is not to be challenged yet again.”
“The Obama administration, having already thrown its weight behind the military, if not Mubarak personally, thereby facilitating the outcome just described, can be expected to redouble its already bad gamble. Fearing once again that the regime might be toppled, it will lean on the Europeans, the Saudis, and others to come to Egypt’s aid. The final nail will be driven into the coffin of the failed democratic transition in Egypt. It will be back to business as usual with a repressive, U.S.-backed military regime, only now the opposition will be much more radical and probably yet more Islamist.” —http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/
Good luck with Europe convincing their austerity smacked public to additionally take on the cost of another American defense of democracies from regional Dictators, and Tyrants. For all I know, the substantial Arab/Muslim population in the EU may find support with the wider public who will see all this, together, as one of a kind with their economic woes. So that leaves the Treasury. Deeper cuts for us, bigger profits for the MIC.
2011 is shaping up to be a year to remember. Perhaps, the sooner everyone here gets with the program, the better the outcomes will be. We really don’t need to discuss the same shit over, and over, again, in an endless display of pedantry. We can pee on the flames as the edifice burns all around us – for all the good that will do – things are not going to get better, nor our entrenched kleptocracy yield to our passivity. Power does not yield to petitions, period. Scraps? – sure; Change? – no. Yet the trajectory aims straight at a unimaginable shit bath for us peons. Wouldn’t it be ironic, though, if this whole Neo-liberal enterprise collapsed say; September ’11?
How about discussing a) the effects of neo-liberal ideology, of which neo-con militarism is an integral part, in terms of the tsunami of feces rushing at us as we speak. And, b) is FDL going to take the lead in strategizing, and organizing a push back, late as it is?
Because, if not, then what great purpose does this 30,000 strong formation of progressive/liberal legionaries serve? Is there a purpose? a goal? a path? a plan? Do we really believe there’s time enough to reform the Parties before they burry us? Are we watching the same movie?
Or am I the only one who feels increasingly unsated, and captured by a sense of profound inertia?
cross posted @ Mosquito Cloud