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Indiana Burning UPDATE: Kentucky Sun?

If the rest of the country looks like Indiana tonight, Democrats might as well just go to bed early and duck.

At the beginning of the day, Democrats held 5 House seats in Indiana, and Republicans held 3. At the moment, Democrats are only ahead in one, the Indianapolis-area seat held by Andre Carson. And even that is only a 53.5-43.2 lead at this point. Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly and Peter Visclosky are all down, though Visclosky’s seat is extremely early and I assume Gary is not in. In addition, the open seat vacated by Brad Ellsworth looks like a Republican win at this point as well.

Hill, Donnelly and Ellsworth all took their seats in the wave year of 2006, when Indiana flipped their caucus from red to blue. They could all go tonight. This would be a real sea change in the House.

There’s some better news in Kentucky, where Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth are holding on. But Indiana looks extremely bleak.

Lots of other data coming in, but that’s what stands out.

UPDATE: Yarmuth, a pretty good Democrat, has been called the winner in KY-03. That’s decent news for the Democrats. Chandler is also still ahead. I would argue that Kentucky Democrats at least had something to vote for on the ballot.

Florida and North Carolina don’t look so hot.

UPDATE: Florida and Virginia look pretty bad right now. Alan Grayson looks done. Tom Perriello’s probably done as well.

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David Dayen

David Dayen