Recommended Short and Long Term Voting Strategies for the Dump Obama Movement
This is basically a cross post of a diary of mine at OpenLeft, called A Proposed Framework for an Expanded Dump Obama Movement I’ve re-titled it, partly because Jeff Roby said that I was describing an organization, not so much a movement. I view Dump Obama, from the point of view of a voting strategy, as strictly short term. But what long term voting strategies should be embraced by Dem-leaning voters who are sympathetic to Dump Obama? Also, please note that Dump Obama has been criticized as alienating to black voters in an OpenLeft diary Dump Obama? Not in my precinct!
(this diary is a comment on a new diary by Jeff Roby (jeffroby) re Dump Obama, called Dump Obama: for a Time of Crisis)
Dump Obama reflects an abandonment of the failed strategy of lesser-evilist voting.
What I’d like to suggest is keeping it as a primary meme (perfect for a bumper sticker), but nevertheless subsuming it under the broader flag of anti-lesser-evilism. Not that you would call it that. You’d be better off still calling it the Dump Obama movement, than calling it the Dump Lesser Evilism Movement. Eventually, you’d have to come up with a new name, especially after Obama is history. For now, though, the Dump Obama meme is a fine proxy for the Dump Lesser Evilism Voting meme.
Please see this link for a long-overdue awareness that voting more strategically (and even just threatening to do so) has paid dividends for the Tea Baggers: Tea Party will gain influence within the GOP
In practical terms, a Dump Obama movement will embrace, right from the get-go, not just the notion of dumping Obama, but also dumping Dems who cross some line or set of lines.
I also suggested (and reiterate that suggestion) that the Dump Obama movement urge progressives to vote Green at the state level
So, to summarize, the 3 pillars of the Dump Obama movement that I’m suggesting are:
1) Dump Obama
2) Dump Bad Dems at the Federal level
3) Dump all Dems (eventually) at the State level, and form a cooperative progressive Dem / progressive Green voting bloc. (Please see my diary on this subject: "Dump Corporate Dems" – Going Green at the State Level, to "make Dems do it" at the Federal level)
This will also help dispel any illusions that anybody might have that you are simply fixated on Obama.
re: 2) Dump Bad Dems at the Federal level
My recommendation for this is something like the Full Court Press at the primary level plus some reasonably agressive punishing type vote in the general election.
But not too punishing. Finding the right level of punishment votes (expressed as a percentage of Dem incumbents) is the job of a competent political game theorist, IMO.
However, if I wanted to take a stab at an optimal figure, I’d say something like 10% of the House Dem incumbents, and 7% of the Senate Dem incumbents. So, e.g., members of the Dump Obama movement identify the worst 4 Democratic incumbent Senators*, and then members who live in their states vote against them. If the race is close, and voting 3rd party might still allow the Dem to win, the Dump Obama movement must prove itself not to be wimpy, like the so-called leaders in the Veal Pen. Make no mistake about it, that means voting for the Republican.
If you want to create a credible threat in future election cycles, you need to be willing to pull the trigger…
For anybody who believes that targetting only 7-10% of incumbent Dems is too timid, well, you may be completely correct. Sooner or later (I hope sooner), vote blocs need to also vote on their strategy. In this case, because the Dems screwed up so badly, the Dump Obama participants may vote to dump 20% (e.g.) of the Dem incumbents during the general election. The key thing is that they need to do it with open eyes, do it publicly, not apologize to anybody for their vote, but also stoically deal with whatever consequences result.
* 7% of 59 = 4.13 ~ 4