Bad News for Democrats: 12 Frosh Representatives Endangered, Say New District Polls
In a poll of 12 hotly contested races that could decide who controls the House in the 112th Congress, Republican challengers are beating freshman Democrats in 11 — and in the last one, the race is tied.
Each week until the election, The Hill with the America’s Natural Gas Alliance is having Penn Schoen Berland poll 10-12 swing House districts and the first batch was full of bad news.
The only “relative” good news in the polls is that MI-07 is tied and in CO-04, NV-03, OH-16, MD-01 and VA-05 the Democrats are trailing by only three or fewer points. For an incumbent to be trailing or even tied at this point means that they likely are going to lose, but at least in these six districts it is close enough that if the Democrats gets a lucky break they might pull it off.
To put things in perspective, even if this a decent election for Democrats–meaning they lose only half of their 39 seat majority–they would still have to expect to lose most of these seats.