CommunityElections

Yes on Prop 19 Still Leads 47% to 43%; Support For Marijuana Legalization Measure Drops Slightly

Vote Yes on 19 poster from 1972

Yes on 19 Marijuana Legalization Campaign Poster. (Bolerium Books/LA Weekly)

This November voters in California will vote on Proposition 19, deciding the fate of marijuana’s legalization, regulation and taxation. According to the latest SurveyUSA poll of likely voters, the proposition still hold a modest lead with 47% of voters saying they are certain to vote yes while only 43% say they are certain to vote no.

SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1)
Prop 19
Certain Yes 47
Certain No 43
Not Certain 10

This represents a slight drop in support for Prop 19 compared to the last time SurveyUSA polled the state three weeks ago. Their preview polls taken August 9th-11th and July 8th-11th both found 50% of likely voters certain to vote yes in favor of legalization, and 40% certain to vote no on Prop 19.

Looking at the cross tabs the general patterns of support for Prop 19 and marijuana legalization in general remain little changed. Men support the measure strongly (54% yes – 41% no) while women are slightly opposed (40% yes – 46% no). It is still heavily supported by young voters but opposed by older voters. Not surprisingly the Bay Area is the region of the state that most strongly backs the ballot initiative.

There are roughly two months until the election and one month until early voting starts on October 4th. Yes on Prop 19 still has a small lead but that lead has narrowed slightly. With such a close race and relatively few undecided voters the success or failure of Prop 19 will likely come down to turnout. The big question remains: Will the young voters who overwhelming support legalizing marijuana turnout in large numbers to put Prop 19 over the top?

Very strong youth turnout could make the different between a narrow two percentage point loss for Prop 19 and a narrow two point victory for Prop 19.

CommunityFDL Main Blog

Yes on Prop 19 Still Leads 47% to 43%; Support For Marijuana Legalization Measure Drops Slightly

Vote Yes on 19 poster from 1972

Yes on 19 Marijuana Legalization Campaign Poster. (Bolerium Books/LA Weekly)

This November voters in California will vote on Proposition 19, deciding the fate of marijuana’s legalization, regulation and taxation. According to the latest SurveyUSA poll of likely voters, the proposition still hold a modest lead with 47% of voters saying they are certain to vote yes while only 43% say they are certain to vote no.

SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1)
Prop 19
Certain Yes 47
Certain No 43
Not Certain 10

This represents a slight drop in support for Prop 19 compared to the last time SurveyUSA polled the state three weeks ago. Their preview polls taken August 9th-11th and July 8th-11th both found 50% of likely voters certain to vote yes in favor of legalization, and 40% certain to vote no on Prop 19.

Looking at the cross tabs the general patterns of support for Prop 19 and marijuana legalization in general remain little changed. Men support the measure strongly (54% yes – 41% no) while women are slightly opposed (40% yes – 46% no). It is still heavily supported by young voters but opposed by older voters. Not surprisingly the Bay Area is the region of the state that most strongly backs the ballot initiative.

There are roughly two months until the election and one month until early voting starts on October 4th. Yes on Prop 19 still has a small lead but that lead has narrowed slightly. With such a close race and relatively few undecided voters the success or failure of Prop 19 will likely come down to turnout. The big question remains: Will the young voters who overwhelming support legalizing marijuana turnout in large numbers to put Prop 19 over the top?

Very strong youth turnout could make the different between a narrow two percentage point loss for Prop 19 and a narrow two point victory for Prop 19.

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is an expert on politics, health care and drug policy. He is also the author of After Legalization and Cobalt Slave, and a Futurist writer at http://pendinghorizon.com

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