I tend to agree with the position that anti-Lincoln votes in the first-round primary on Tuesday won’t morph into pro-Lincoln votes in the runoff. I also believe that it’s harder to get voters for an incumbent excited to vote for them the second time in three weeks. Therefore I see Bill Halter with a slight advantage in the runoff, though you never can tell in a low-turnout election. But the first poll released since Election Day has Halter on top:

Last night DFA commissioned a poll from Research 2000 to see why Democratic voters went to the polls in Arkansas yesterday.

Here is what we found: Democrats in Arkansas want someone who will stand up for them, not stand with corporate lobbyists in DC. And, Bill Halter is ahead in the run-off 48-46.

Democrats in Arkansas believe Blanche Lincoln is on the side of lobbyists, not their side.
46% say she is more on the side of lobbyists, 42% believe she is on their side.
35% of Democratic voters believe Halter is on their side; only 14% believe he is more on the side of lobbyists.

Democrats in Arkansas want Democrats in Washington to fight harder against corporate special interests like Wall Street and Insurance Companies.
53% said they don’t think Democrats in Washington are fighting hard enough against special interests.
68% of Democrats say they would vote for a candidate who supports regulating Wall St over decreasing government spending.
68% prefer candidates supported by progressive Democratic groups over Wall St. special interests.

This is a partisan poll with a house effect, but it basically shows what the polls showed on May 19 – a close race with some sentiment breaking against the incumbent for her specific sins.

The Arkansas Election Line, a conglomeration of news sites in the state, now rates the race “Lean Halter”.

David Dayen

David Dayen