Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina Primaries Thread #2

So here’s the update:

Indiana: 50% of the vote in statewide, and Dan Coats has a “solid” 40%, with Marlin Stutzman at 31% and John Hostettler at 20%. Stutzman would need to pick up a ton of votes to catch Coats. Still, not exactly an inspiring performance by him. If he wins, he’ll face Brad Ellsworth for the seat vacated by Evan Bayh.

IN-05: Dan Burton still in trouble. With 51% in, Burton leads by just 1,600 votes over Luke Messer.

IN-08: Kristi “red-blooded American wife” Risk leads by 300 votes with 53.5% in.

IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel by 1,600 votes with 50% in.

North Carolina: It’s now looking like Elaine Marshall might not be able to avoid a runoff. Here’s the rundown with 22% of the vote in:

Marshall 38.8%
Cunningham 27.3%
Lewis 16.1%
M.Williams 8%
Harris 6.3%
Worthy 3.5%

It’s the success of the lesser candidates that is pushing the race to a runoff among the top two, actually. Marshall would be favored in a runoff – polls showed that she was the second choice of more of Lewis’ voters – but aides in the campaign wanted to avoid the runoff, to get the DSCC back on her side and fundraise. I don’t know if that will be possible.

NC-08: Larry Kissell is up 59-40 with 8% in.

NC-11: Heath Shuler is up 60-40 with 28% in.

Ohio: It’s very early, but Lee Fisher has not pulled away from Jennifer Brunner in the Democratic Senate primary. He leads 52-47 thus far, with not even 1% of precincts reporting (but that includes some early voting, I believe).

Other races are far too early to call.

UPDATE 1: The AP has called the IN-Sen race for Dan Coats. He’ll take the momentum of getting all of 40% of the vote in a Republican primary into the general election against Brad Ellsworth. There’s a wealth of oppo against Coats, but Indiana seems to be turning red at the statewide level, if you look at opinion polling. It could be worse for Brad Ellsworth, but not by all that much.

…IN-05: Dan Burton is up by around 2,000 votes with 67% in, but a long of his strongholds are gone. Luke Messer could still pull the upset.

IN-08: Kristi Risk is still hanging in, up 640 votes with 74% in.

IN-09 is crazy. Mike Sodrel is now in THIRD. Todd Young still leads, but teabagger Travis Hankins is now within 300 votes. 79% in.

UPDATE 2: We’re up to 9% of the vote counted in Ohio, and Lee Fisher still has not pulled away. It’s 52-48. Maybe Fisher voters got complacent with those good polls in the final days. Jennifer Brunner still has a shot.

…45% in over in NC-Sen, and Elaine Marshall still leads comfortably, but has only 37.9% of the vote. It’s looking more and more like a runoff.

…The AP has called it for Heath Shuler in NC-11, and Larry Kissell leads fairly comfortably in NC-08. But Swing State Project makes the right point. These two Congressmen voted against the health care bill from the right. They faced unknowns who didn’t file FEC statements, which means they didn’t raise more than $5,000. And the unknowns took around 35-40% of the primary vote. That’s embarrassing for two incumbents, and speaks to some real anger in the grassroots.

UPDATE 3: We’re up to 71% counted in North Carolina, and I think a runoff is pretty unavoidable at this point, between Elaine Marshall (37%) and Cal Cunningham (27%). I’m surprised how well the lesser candidates did.

With about 25% reporting, it’s a 56-44 lead for Lee Fisher over Jennifer Brunner in the Ohio Democratic primary for US Senate. The winner will take on Rob Portman. Fisher looks like he’ll prevail.

On to those wacky Indiana House Republican primaries!

IN-05: The race still hasn’t been called for Dan Burton. He’s up by about 2,200 votes over Luke Messer with 75% of precincts reporting. This is a horrible performance by an incumbent member of Congress, with just 30% of the primary vote.

IN-08: The Kristi Risk boomlet is fading. Larry Buschon, on the strength of late precincts from his home district in Evansville, is up 1,800 votes with 93% reporting. He’ll probably pull this out. He was favored by the NRCC.

IN-09: Looks like Todd Young will hold on against former Rep. Mike Sodrel and tea partier Travis Hankins. Young is up 1,900 votes with 91% of the vote in.

One other report: in OH-02, Democrat David Krikorian said earlier this week that his opponent, former “Apprentice” contestant Surya Yalamanchili, couldn’t win “with a name like that.” Well, 34% of the vote is in, and Krikorian leads Yalamanchili, but only be about 350 votes.

UPDATE 4: The AP calls it for Larry Bucshon in IN-08. Kristi Risk, we hardly knew ye.

UPDATE 5: The AP calls it for Dan Burton, a sitting Congressman, in IN-05, with a pathetic 29.7% of the vote. In a Republican primary. Wow.

The AP has also called the runoff between Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham in North Carolina. That will take place June 8. Larry Kissell has won his primary. His opponent will probably get decided in a runoff between Tim D’Annunzio and Harold Johnson.

UPDATE 6: OK, I’m shuttin’ her down here. Basically, the story of the night is this: Indiana conservatives are VERY conservative, and they came close on a number of occasions to having a tea party candidate pick off the establishment choice. Pending IN-09 (Travis Hankins is back within 300 votes of Todd Young, with Mike Sodrel in third), it didn’t happen.

We know that Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham are headed to a runoff, even though Marshall won pretty handily tonight, and she’ll probably pick up some of Ken Lewis’ voters, if the polling is accurate.

We know that Lee Fisher has won the Ohio Senate primary – that just came in from AP. That was basically all about money and name ID – Fisher has been running statewide since the 1980s.

It looks like we’re seeing similar tea party success against the establishment in Ohio, though no victories yet and not at the same scale as in Indiana.

We know that the grassroots expressed its anger with Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler by giving 35-40% of the vote to total unknowns in those Democratic primaries.

That’s what we know.

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David Dayen

David Dayen