PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century is
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average
for last century is 30%)
Information obtained through March 2010 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic
hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season.
We estimate that 2010 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms
(average is 9.6), 75 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is
24.5), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days
(average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about
130 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone
(NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 160 percent of the long-term average. We
have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our early December forecast.
This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction
scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data.
Approximately 5,000 barrels of crude oil is being pumped into the Gulf of Mexico each day, approximately 200,000 gallons of gasoline – or enough to fuel a Honda Civic Hybrid some 18,200 times – or enough to travel over 8.9 million miles.
The biggest concern about the oil spill is the wildlife that has been affected. In addition, billions of dollars of the seafood industry in Louisiana and Florida are threatened. Entire economic communities depend on the seafood industry, which produces 1/3 of the nation’s entire Seafood market.
On top of that, the tourist industry is concerned about the oil spill affecting travel to their areas. The Gulf Coast has beautiful beaches that many people flock to each and every summer. If there is oil along the beaches, people are not going to come vacation at the beach.
The states of Alabama and Mississippi rely on the Gulf Coast for much of their Tourism revenue. Without it, the states would take a significant hit to their revenue.
IT could take weeks or months to stop the oil from spilling in to the water. In a matter of less than two months, the oil spill could become worse than the Exxon Valdez crisis from 21 years ago.
If these industries are impacted, many families will have to relocate. Generations of families rely on seafood and tourism for their livelihoods.
Now imagine what happens if we add hurricanes into the mix first of all attempts to plug up the spill get delayed every time a hurricane or even a tropical storm gets near the area.
That means more days of oil leaks and a bigger spill 35 days of hurricanes are forecast how many will be in the area of the spill lets say 10 at 5,000 barrels a day thats 50,000 more barrels of oil spilled than we estimate assuming that a second oil well can be drilled and that solves the problem. The underwater robots I think we can safely say have failed to control the oil spill.
Second a hurricane or even a tropical storm will spread the oil further in ways we can’t guess Texas could get hit, Florida could get more oil than they expect. Oil could be driven inland if a hurricane reaches shore.
Think Katrina as the worse case scenario only this time New Orleans is covered in toxic oil. Think cropland like rice farms ruined.
Think lots more refugees why well even if your home survives the hurricane and you still have a job fishing and tourism are both dead how do you live in a house with a yard coated in oil the fumes would be a problem never mind the mess and the potential fire hazard.
Further ideas how a hurricane can make this worse are appreciated I want a better handle on the economic impact but of course all comments are welcome even if we do disagree.