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Sanchez Returns to Washington, Likely a Yes Vote UPDATE: Cooper Voting Yes, Donnelly in Agreement, 216 in Hand

UPDATE: Kanjorski’s a Yes, Berry, Costello and Lipinski are No’s. So that makes it 217-212 with 2 undecideds.

Just because a couple people in the comments asked for it, I’ll put up the numbers at the bottom of this post. But as a news peg, let me show you Loretta Sanchez’ tweet from the well of the House:

Looking forward to casting my vote on this historic health care bill! House is currently set to vote around 11pm EST.

I think a “No” vote after that statement would be, well, odd. So she’s a yes.

For me, acting with an abundance of caution, I think it’s 214-209. So that would be two from passage, with 8 undecided.

UPDATE: Jim Cooper makes it 215. That’s one from passage. As I said, this is going to pass.

UPDATE II: Indiana’s Joe Donnelly was part of the Stupak agreement, he confirms. That gives the Democrats the required 216 votes, and 100% assurance of passage of health care reform today.

Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Lean No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (31):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
5 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
6 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
7 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
8 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
9 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
10 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
11 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
12 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
13 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
14 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
15 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
16 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
17 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
18 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
19 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
20 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
21 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
22 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
23 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
24 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
25 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
26 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
27 Space, Zack X R+7 1
28 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
29 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
30 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
31 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (1):
1 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (5):
1 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
2 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
3 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 216
Republican 178
TOTAL 209 0 6 0 216
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David Dayen

David Dayen