Sorry I went missing last night. But Jane provided the scoop on Loretta Sanchez.

Let me just interject. I know Loretta. I’ve had dinner with Loretta. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if she carried this out, but she’s just as likely to be there in the end. She does tend to overreact to possible electoral challenges – Van Tran happens to be a miserably bad candidate, but she’s probably concerned by him. Another contributing factor is that there’s less in it for her district than you think. If undocumenteds are barred from the exchange, well, that takes out a significant number of the uninsured in her district.

Sanchez voted against the rule in the health care debate in November, then came back and voted for the bill, ultimately. (She also voted against the Stupak amendment.) If she was in Florida fundraising, she may not come back to vote at all, which is almost like voting no at this point (a tie vote does not pass).

John Larson said on ABC they have the votes in hand, but he’s been saying that all week. Bart Stupak said this morning that he has 8 votes in his coalition. If that’s true there’s almost no path to 218. However, Stupak said he was nearing a deal with the White House on language that would go into an executive order, specifying no public funding for abortion. Obviously, if the Stupak bloc all votes for the bill, victory would be fairly well in hand.

By the way, don’t be surprised if Rick Boucher, who’s on my list as a No, flips to Yes.

More in a bit…

Sorry I went missing last night. But Jane provided the scoop on Loretta Sanchez.

Let me just interject. I know Loretta. I’ve had dinner with Loretta. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if she carried this out, but she’s just as likely to be there in the end. She does tend to overreact to possible electoral challenges – Van Tran happens to be a miserably bad candidate, but she’s probably concerned by him. Another contributing factor is that there’s less in it for her district than you think. If undocumenteds are barred from the exchange, well, that takes out a significant number of the uninsured in her district.

Sanchez voted against the rule in the health care debate in November, then came back and voted for the bill, ultimately. (She also voted against the Stupak amendment.) If she was in Florida fundraising, she may not come back to vote at all, which is almost like voting no at this point (a tie vote does not pass).

John Larson said on ABC they have the votes in hand, but he’s been saying that all week. Bart Stupak said this morning that he has 8 votes in his coalition. If that’s true there’s almost no path to 218. However, Stupak said he was nearing a deal with the White House on language that would go into an executive order, specifying no public funding for abortion. Obviously, if the Stupak bloc all votes for the bill, victory would be fairly well in hand.

By the way, don’t be surprised if Rick Boucher, who’s on my list as a No, flips to Yes.

More in a bit…

David Dayen

David Dayen