Lots of information, it’s coming fast and furious now. By the way, of course Democratic leaders say they’re five votes away; that’s been their entire strategy this whole time, to assume inevitability to get people on board. I prefer to count the votes rather than be swayed by anonymous sources.

• There’s the Stephen Lynch situation. He just voted to table the GOP resolution to block “deem and pass” after whining about it all day. And he’s meeting with Obama tonight. And he’s on the AFL-CIO target list. I suspect he gets to yes, but at this stage, I’m putting him down as a lean No. Especially after this outburst:

“There’s a difference between compromise and surrender, right? And this is a complete surrender of all the things that people thought were important to health care reform,” Lynch told reporters. When asked what might cause him to vote for the bill, Lynch said: “There’s one thing. If they put reform back in the health reform bill, that would change my position.”

• Speaking of that AFL-CIO target list, here are the names:

Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkepmer.

Cardoza and Costa will come around, I’m confident of that. Charlie Wilson appeared at a ceremony talking about the benefits of the bill this week. He’s not a problem. Oberstar already proclaimed himself a yes. Michaud, however, voted with Republicans on the deem and pass rule today. I think we have to throw him in the undecided category. Everyone else there is to be expected.

• Joseph Cao got a personal request from the President to re-read the Senate bill’s abortion language, and he will do so. I assume that, like last time, Cao won’t vote Yes until passage is secured. So there’s no reason to take him off of No at this point.

• Luis Gutierrez, after all that, just announced his support. Glad I didn’t fall for that head fake. So ridiculous. UPDATE: the full Hispanic Caucus announced their support.

• Betty Sutton, a lean Yes, will support the bill.

• No vote Heath Shuler gave himself an out to eventually support the bill, but it was a pretty small one if you ask me. I say he’s a No.

• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s opposition hardens. However, based on Allen Boyd’s vote on deem and pass today, and some things that I’ve heard, I’m moving him back into the undecided category.

• The Stupak amendment is all that’s holding up Brad Ellsworth.

OK, so then Lynch is a lean No, Michaud has to be moved into undecided, Boyd goes back to undecided along with Cao (although Cao’s a lean no). Add it up and it’s 191-206; with leaners, 203-210, with 18 undecided. Democrats would need 13 of the 18.

Full numbers:

Definite YES:
191 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.

Definite NO:
177 Republicans

Definite NO:
29 Democrats.

23 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.

6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).

13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

7 lean Yes:
Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.

5 undecided:
Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.

1 lean No:
Glenn Nye.

20 potential Yes-No flip votes:

5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.

5 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

9 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.

3 lean No:
Marion Berry, Joseph Cao, Stephen Lynch.

Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 33. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 18 uncommitted.

The numbers:

Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (30):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
3 Boccieri, John X R+4


4 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
5 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
6 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
7 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
8 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
9 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
10 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
14 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
15 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
16 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
17 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
18 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
19 Perriello, Tom X R+5 1
20 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
21 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
22 Space, Zack X R+7 1
23 Titus, Dina X D+2 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 193
Republican 177
TOTAL 207 4 17 11 193
David Dayen

David Dayen