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Betsy Markey Becomes Third Confirmed No-Yes Vote; Childers a No

Another “lean Yes” vote who voted no previously, Betsy Markey, will reportedly vote for the health care bill, swayed by the positive CBO score according to the Denver Post.

Markey, D-Fort Collins, is one of 39 House members who voted against a health reform bill that passed in November. That group has been courted intensely in recent weeks as Democrats look for 216 votes in support of a compromise measure, which scraps the so-called ‘public option,’ among other changes, from the House bill they earlier opposed.

Sources tell the Denver Post that Markey will announce her support for the new bill in a conference call with reporters at 3:15 p.m.

As I said, Markey was a lean Yes. So her vote does not fully change the dynamic. But if a good number of those wavering Yes votes come home, Markey will help to balance out the losses from the Stupak bloc. Passage definitely has some momentum now.

UPDATE: If everyone in my undecided column who voted for the bill last time comes around and votes for it again, Democrats would have 217 votes. But that includes some very conservative Reps.

Carney, Dahlkemper, Cuellar, Ellsworth, Foster, Kaptur, Bean, Rahall, Mitchell, Ortiz, Pomeroy, Space, Michaud

And that assumes that all five of the former No votes in my “lean yes” category come through, which is by no means secure:

Baird, Tanner, Kosmas, Boccieri, S.Murphy

Incidentally, the count is now 193-206, 204-210 with leaners.

UPDATE II: Travis Childers and his odd moustache will vote no. I expected this, but had him in the undecided camp. So make it 193-207, with leaners 204-211.

The numbers:

Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (30):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
3 Boccieri, John X R+4


4 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
5 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
6 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
7 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
8 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
9 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
10 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
14 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
15 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
16 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
17 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
18 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
19 Perriello, Tom X R+5 1
20 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
21 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
22 Space, Zack X R+7 1
23 Titus, Dina X D+2 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 193
Republican 177
TOTAL 207 4 17 11 193
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David Dayen

David Dayen