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New Health Care Whip Count: 191 Yes, 206 No (206-209 with leaners)

There’s actually not a whole lot to update. However, I do want to flag a couple things which I think are illustrative of the difficulties the House is having in getting this done.

There still are no numbers from CBO. At one point they were expected on Friday. There’s a rumor that the preliminary CBO scores were a bit low, not showing enough savings. And everyone in the undecided camp, or practically everyone, cites waiting for those scores as a reason not to commit.

The President’s holding a come one, come all rally in Fairfax, Virginia on Friday. At one point we were told that would be the day of the vote. Obviously, that’s been pushed back. Some are saying Saturday; others say maybe next week. But the uncertainty as of Tuesday night is striking.

Here are some changes since the last whip count, although most of them have simply been reinforcing:

• I explained earlier that I would make Mike Doyle a Yes, but do nothing on Nick Rahall, based on the information provided.

• So Dennis Kucinich is holding a press conference at 10am tomorrow to announce his vote on health care. That should be, er, interesting. We’ll see what he says then.

• Jason Altmire really wants me to take him off the Yes board, by expressing concern not only about the “deem and pass” strategy but about the inclusion of student loan reform in the bill. Altmire clearly loves the spotlight and I’m about to tune him out completely, but his public Hamlet maneuver isn’t doing a lot to fool me. I still maintain he’ll be there in the end.

• Lots of members are in that same, undecided category, at least in their public statements. Jim Matheson, John Barrow, Scott Murphy, Mike Arcuri, Henry Cuellar, Bill Foster; you name the undecided, they’re probably in the same place. Similarly, Joe Donnelly remains in the confirmed Stupak bloc, and Tom Perriello does not, no matter what third-hand reports at NRO say.

• This “report” from one of Travis Childers’ Republican opponents that he’ll definitely vote for the bill is kind of laughable. So, go ahead and laugh at it!

• Marcy Kaptur chatted with The Hill and brought up a host of issues other than the Stupak amendment, which is probably enough to take her out of the Stupak-curious bloc, but not enough to take her out of the undecided category, though I think we can safely keep her as a lean Yes.

• I have an eye on Sanford Bishop based on this article, but I’m going to keep him off the board for now, subject to change.

So does that change anything? Really, just Mike Doyle. Everything else is in a holding pattern, at least until the CBO score comes out and the schedule gets set. Every day that we wait for that score, and the date of a final vote, is probably a day that the House leadership grows nervous.

Final numbers then: 191 yes, 206 no, with leaners, 206-209.

Raw numbers on the flip:

Definite YES:
191 Democrats, including Jason Altmire (D-PA), who voted No last time, in November.

Definite NO:
178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.

Definite NO:
28 Democrats.

23 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler.

5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus.

13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

7 lean Yes:
Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.

5 undecided:
Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow.

1 lean No:
Glenn Nye.

21 potential Yes-No flip votes:

4 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry.

8 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Baron Hill, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Marcy Kaptur, Tom Perriello.

8 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Ann Kirkpatrick, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell.

2 lean No:
Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry.

Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 21 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 34. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 10 of the last 16 uncommitted.

Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (28):
1 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
2 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
3 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
4 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
5 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
6 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
7 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
8 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
9 Kucinich, Dennis X D+8 1
10 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
11 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
12 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
13 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
14 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
15 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
18 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
19 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
20 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
21 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
22 Adler, John X R+1 1
23 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1

24 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
25 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
26 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
27 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
28 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (13):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boccieri, John X R+4

1

4 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
5 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
6 Gordon, Bart X R R+13 1
7 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
8 Markey, Betsy X R+9 1
9 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
10 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
11 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
12 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
13 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (21):
1 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
3 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
4 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
6 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
7 Foster, Bill X D+1 1
8 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
9 Kaptur, Marcy X D+10 1
10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
11 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
12 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
13 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
14 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
15 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
16 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
17 Perriello, Tom X R+5 1
18 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
19 Space, Zack X R+7 1
20 Sutton, Betty X D+5 1
21 Titus, Dina X D+2 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 191
Republican 178
TOTAL 206 3 16 15 191

Previous Whip Counts:

Monday, March 15 206 2 19 13 191
Sunday, March 14 203 2 28 7 191
Friday, March 12 191 202
Thursday, March 11 189 202
Wednesday, March 10 191 195
Tuesday, March 9 192 194
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David Dayen

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