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Election Night Thread #2

Polls close at this hour in New Jersey and Maine. Leaked exit polls show New Jersey to be basically a tie, FWIW. There are no exit polls out of Maine. Virginia remains too early to call, which shocks me. The networks are being ultra-cautious. The latest numbers:

26.19% reporting
McDonnell (R) 62.86%
Deeds (D) 37.03%

Deeds is down by 117,000 votes.

Results in New Jersey here. Results in Maine here.

The exit poll in New Jersey showed the economy and property taxes to be the main concerns, but voters believed nobody had a credible plan to deal with property taxes.

NBC News has finally projected Bob McDonnell (R) the winner in the Virginia Governor’s race. WHEN WILL OBAMA RESIGN?

…NBC now projects NJ-Gov: too close to call. It’ll be that way for a long while.

…(very) early returns: No on 1 winning 45-6 in Maine!

…The Virginia race really looks like a case of a depressed base. Conservatives turned out at basically the same numbers as they did in 2008. The Democrats didn’t turn out. And Deeds distancing himself from Democratic agenda items like health care reform and climate change is the reason.

…Even tradmed bellweather Howard Fineman is agreeing that Deeds’ Blue Dog agenda hurt him badly, and that Democrats need to not go to the center to win elections; they need to fight for people. “This is as much an expression of a tepid response to the Democratic base.” He’s on Olbermann, so watch what he says to Andrea Mitchell tomorrow. But that’s the right analysis.

…Lt. Governor and Attorney General called in Virginia for the Republicans as well. It was a clean sweep.

…There’s a livestream of events at No on 1 headquarters in Maine, if you’re so inclined.

Michael Steele is having a funny interview on CNN right now; it’s YouTube-worthy. It’s all about the NY-23 race (where the polls close at 9pm ET). He’s slipping and sliding over his initial Scozzafava endorsement.

…More early numbers:
Maine Question 1
No 55 (votes)
Yes 24 (votes)

That’s early.

VA-Gov (52% in)
McDonnell 60.9%
Deeds 39.0%

It’ll be interesting to see if Deeds can hit 45%, but McDonnell is the winner.

0% in NJ-Gov:
Christie 62%
Corzine 29%
Daggett 8%

No idea where those votes are coming from.

…Incidentally, my take on what this all “means” is here. Short version: without a progressive economic message and real action, Democrats may be in some trouble.

Still 1% of the precincts in, NJ-Gov:
Christie 51%
Corzine 40%
Daggett 8%

Most of those votes are coming from the southern coast, a more Republican area.

1% in Maine. Question 1:
No 72%
Yes 28%

Early. A right-wing tax measure is going down in Maine, in early voting, too.

There’s also a measure in Washington state, Referendum 71, which would take away domestic partner benefits. We’re not going to know much about that tonight. Washington is now an all vote-by-mail state, so votes will be coming in for the duration of the week.

…OK, we’re getting some real numbers in Maine. 2% of precincts in on Question 1:
Yes 50.67%
No 49.33%

A difference of 101 votes right now.

NJ-Gov: 2% reporting
Christie 50%
Corzine 41%
Daggett 8%

If there was instant-runoff voting in this country, that election would look VERY different…

…Question 1 is 54-46 yes with 3% of the vote in. Still very early. At Open Left, Adam Bink has a great thread going with info coming from inside the boiler room. He’s guardedly optimistic, and he says that the Bangor Daily News returns are sometimes screwy at the start, so proceed with caution.

…Hotline reports that independents in the New Jersey exit poll moved strong to Christie. There are enough Democrats in the state to overcome that, but it’s not a good sign for Jon Corzine.

…3% in, Question 1 in Maine:
Yes 53%
No 46%
Adam Bink reports that the campaign is hitting all their goals.

…14% in, NJ-Gov:
Christie 52
Corzine 42
Daggett 6
It looks like Daggett is really losing voters on Election Day. The CW was that would help Christie and the exit polls back it up. But again, the early returns came from Republican areas. The top-line of all the exit polls show a tie race.

…Polls have just closed in NY-23 and the New York City mayor’s race. NBC has not yet called either race.

…the No side has taken back the lead in Maine. 5% reporting:
No: 54.5%
Yes: 45.5%

…Dave Weigel reports “a lot of optimism” for Doug Hoffman in NY-23 on Rachel Maddow’s show tonight.

…Corzine has closed the gap a bit in NJ-Gov. 28% in:
Christie 50%
Corzine 44%
Daggett 6%

Starting a new thread.

…new thread here.

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David Dayen

David Dayen