Update: The Approve 71 campaign press release about the poll is below the fold.

“Victory hinges on voter turnout” is the sobering message in poll results released today by the Approve Referendum 71 campaign.  The campaign commissioned a statewide survey of 569 voters likely to vote in Washington’s upcoming general election.  According to the Approve 71 campaign, voters who turn out in off-year elections tend to be older, more conservative voters, with up to half of the voter population not voting.  When likely voters were read the exact Referendum 71 ballot language, the poll result was:

Approve: 51%

Reject: 44%

Undecided: 5%

This is a much finer margin than seen in earlier polls, because those polls didn’t distinguish likely voters from the entire pool of registered voters.

What does this mean for strategy moving forward?  Since our base of support is among those who tend to sit out off-year elections, we’re going to have to do some serious GOTV.  We need to turn out our base, which tends to be younger voters, urban voters and liberals.  

Campaign manager Josh Friedes summed it up this way:  “In the 2009 election the question isn’t going to be how much support there is for the domestic partnership law, the question is going to be who votes. There is no question in my mind that the majority of Washington voters want their neighbors families to have the protections contained in the domestic partnership law, but if people don’t vote this election is going to be a cliff hanger. People who support protecting all Washington families need to both vote and remind their friends and family that they too must vote in order to insure that families throughout Washington state do not lose the critical protections [provided] by Washington’s domestic partnership law. If this law is not approved, families all across Washington state will be harmed.”

The number of families in harm’s way?  6,035 as of last night.  Now would be a good time to donate, to sign up to phone bank and do outreach.  ANd here are six simple things you can do to help.

Related:

* Volunteering to protect ALL Washington families – Phone banking for Approve Referendum 71

* Who likes chocolate? Approve Referendum 71 advocates taking the initiative

* Approve Refendum 71 volunteer video!

* Six simple things you can do to get Referendum 71 approved

For Immediate Release – Sept. 23, 2009

Approve 71 campaign poll shows a tough fight ahead Victory hinges on voter turnout

SEATTLE – The Approve 71 campaign today released polling data that shows the campaign to protect all of Washington’s families and the state’s domestic partnership law promises to be a tough fight that hinges on strong voter turnout and broad voter contact.

Following certification of R-71 on Sept. 2, 2009, the Approve 71 campaign commissioned Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) to conduct a statewide survey of voters likely to vote in Washington’s upcoming general election.

“We have seen over the years that an increasing majority of Washingtonians support equality under the law for all Washington families,” said Anne

Levinson, Approve 71 campaign chair. “But we know that in an off-year election voter turnout trends to older, more conservative voters, and as much as half of the general population won’t be voting, so we wanted to ask just likely voters about specific ballot language.”

The poll result numbers strongly suggest it will be a close election.

• When voters are read the exact ballot language, they divide 51 percent “approve” and 44 percent “reject.”

“The poll suggests the same trend we’ve seen across the country, the highest margins of support are among younger voters and those who vote less frequently, particularly urban voters,” Levinson said. “The R-71 election is likely to have a very narrow margin and since the measure was certified so late, we only have a few weeks to reach voters to explain what the domestic

partnership law is and how it protects families. It is critical that those who support the law turn out to vote.”

Further complicating matters is the fact that when voters are unsure of what a measure is about, they tend to vote “no.” With R-71, supporters of domestic partnership law have the approve position.

“Every voter who cares about ensuring that all Washington families have equal protection under state law must talk to their friends and family about the importance of voting approve on R-71. Thousands of families across the state are counting on us,” Levinson said.

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There are now more than 180 community and faith-based organizations, and tens of thousands of people supporting the Approve 71 campaign. Major employers in the region like Microsoft, Boeing, Vulcan, Nike, PSE, RealNetworks and others have also endorsed the campaign. For a complete list of endorsements and information on the Approve 71 campaign, please visit approve71.org.

Contact:

Sue Evans

253.592.1590

media@approve71.org

Josh Friedes

206.679.8546

media@approve71.org