CommunityPam's House Blend

"We are receiving signed R-71 petitions by the thousands daily!"

While we’re waiting to learn the fate of Washington state’s anti-family Referendum 71 (all will be revealed by Saturday), let’s have a look at Larry Stickney’s computational logic.

July 22,2009

THE MAIL-IN DEADLINE FOR THE R-71 PETITION IS TODAY!

IF YOU MISS TODAY’S DEADLINE, SIGNED PETITIONS MUST BE HAND DELIVERED TO CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS IN ARLINGTON BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK!

PLEASE DO NOT CUT THE PETITIONS AS THEY MUST BE RETURNED INTACT TO BE VALID!  

URGENT: R-71 PETITIONS TODAY MUST BE MAILED TODAY TO BE COUNTED!

We are recieving (sic) signed R-71 petitions by the thousands daily!

All those caps – Larry sounds a bit desperate, doesn’t he?  Here’s why that might be.  Almost two weeks ago Larry claimed that they already had 75,000 signatures, half of the recommended goal of 150,000 raw signatures to yield the required 120,577 valid ones.  By my calculations based on his reports, he should have already collected plenty of signatures before he wrote the panicked note above.  So then why write it?

Missing Data

In his missive above, Larry neglects to tell us three pieces of information:

1. How many thousands of petitions he is receiving daily.

2. The average number of signatures on petitions.  Each petition sheet has space for 20 signatures.

3. How many days he’s been receiving petitions by the thousands.

Computational Assumptions

Let us assume that “thousands” of petitions (P) means at least 2,000.  Because Gary Randall says his followers are “tireless“, “above and beyond“, etc., let us further assume that each petition has the full compliment of 20 signatures (S).  Finally, let us assume that Larry has received this flood of mailed petitions for two days (D) only.

The Calculation

(2,000 P)(20 S/P)(2 D) = 80,000 signatures received by Larry Stickney in the past two days.

Hmmmm….

Clearly, something doesn’t add up here.  If Larry Stickney had received 80,000 new signatures in the past few days, when combined with the prior 75,000 he would already have more than enough to submit to the Secretary of State.  So why the misspelled hysterics in caps above?  Perhaps their estimate of 75,000 signatures from two weeks ago was inflated.  Perhaps the completed petitions coming in this week are of poor quality because they contain few signatures each.  Perhaps “thousands daily” is a profound exaggeration.  Perhaps Larry and Gary incessantly having to repeat “PLEASE DO NOT CUT THE PETITIONS” means that a significant number of the daily thousands of petitions received are invalid.

Conclusion

It is entirely appropriate that Larry sounds desperate.


Join Washington Families Standing Together in their fight to defeat Referendum 71 by clicking on the graphics below.

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Laurel Ramseyer

Laurel Ramseyer

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