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Does 2010 vs 2012 really mean 2014?

Last night the Get Engaged Tour ( stopped in San Francisco to present the dilemma du jour to the community:  Shall a repeal Prop 8 effort be launched in 2010 or 2012?

The real dilemma is more like this:  How do we get everyone to stop pushing for a 2010 repeal effort?

Statistics were presented at a rapid pace that displayed polling conducted throughout CA just before the Court announced the decision to uphold Prop 8.  The meeting was limited to 2 hours and time was reserved for feedback making the extensive polling results flash by on the screen without much explanation.  

I would like to say that those poll results were available for discussion now, but they aren't.  Instead of questioning the content of the poll or considering ways that a poll could be conducted to get NEW information about different ways to engage voters to re-consider their perception of Prop 8, we are given this summary of the results (quoted from ):

…we will need 1,000 new supporters a day to repeal Prop 8 in November 2010 and 500 new supporters a day if we wait until November 2012.  That means we have a lot of work to restore the freedom to marry in California.

 Without attempting to paraphrase the hour long presentation, the point of last nights meeting was to make it clear that the polling data collected in May shows that the numbers of people needed to change position from Yes on 8 to No on 8 would require the mobilization of an army of gays and their allies to be marching through California EVERY DAY beginning on August 1 until election day in November 2010.  

Literally, the idea is that we need to “convert” people that are antagonistic toward us to become our supporters.  I'm not putting words in their mouths.  The word used was “convert.”

Also in last nights statistical presentation was data that showed numbers of liberals and/or Democrats that are opposed to same-sex marriage.  Although I do not have those numbers available to me right now, they were frighteningly similar to what CNN found in exits polls following the 2008 election ( ):

36% of Democrats (comprising 42% of the electorate) supported Prop 8

22% of liberal voters (26% of the electorate) supported Prop 8

47% of moderate voters (44% of the electorate) supported Prop 8

Again we are presented with the strategy that the ONLY way to repeal Prop 8 is by reaching out and changing the hearts and minds (aka “convert”) of people that are increasingly staunch opponents of us and ignoring the fact that there are many people that share common interests with us and are resistant to consideration of our plight.  

How is it more possible to change the minds of our opponents than it is to get our supporters – liberals, democrats and/or moderates – to agree that restrictions on our citizenship (aka Prop 8 in CA and others across the country) are destructive, discriminatory and contrary to their liberal/moderate philosophy?

I can't possibly consider supporting a campaign to repeal Prop 8 that avoids addressing this issue while focusing solely upon “converting” religious zealots that hold us to a higher moral standard than they adhere to in their own families.  

The point of last nights meeting was clear:  2010 is highly unlikely to be a year that holds a successful repeal effort.  The possibilities for a repeal in 2012 was barely discussed, but one astute participant made the point that Obama's re-election effort will make a repeal campaign very 2nd tier in fund raising, attention and volunteering.  

I raised the point that what we are really tallking about is waiting until 2014.  Oddly enough, I didn't get any applause.  The horse was led to the water last night and the straw poll taken at the close of the session showed that the horse did not take a drink.  There remains a majority interested in a repeal in 2010.  At least among the 50 people that knew about the meeting and bothered to show up.    



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