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Pennsylvania Pollster: “Specter is Toast”

New polling in Pennsylvania shows broad and deep dissatisfaction with Senator Arlen Specter, who is up for re-election in the blue-trending Commonwealth in 2010.

Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they’d prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it’s time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.

These are terrible numbers for an incumbent 20 months from his re-elect vote. Pollster James Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research is brutally frank about Arlen’s chances:

If the election were held today, "in a two-person race, Specter is toast" if his challenger is a credible candidate, Lee said.

Arlen’s own party is less happy with him than Pennsylvania Democrats are:

Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said.

Atrios has a message for former Congressman and Club for Growth Chairman Pat Toomey, who almost caught Arlen in a hard-fought 2004 GOP primary:

Run, Toomey, Run

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