Part 2 of Inside Iraq

First, as Erdla of Gorilla’s Guides and Lady Bird of Roads to Iraq pointed out…

Al-Arabiya reported that Syria reduced its military forces and border guards on the Syria – Iraq border [cutting diplomatic ties with Iraq also], but what I heard [from my own sources] is that Syria withdrew all its forces from the border [which means giving the green light to armed groups to cross to Iraq].

And…

They’ve(Syria) just thrown their border wide open and broken all contacts with Baghdad,

Expect some painful blowback.

Erdla
Gorilla’s Guides

That doesn’t bode well…

Nor does the Kirkuk issue as the International Crisis Group stated in their recent report; "Oil for Soil: Toward a Grand Bargain on Iraq and the Kurds…"

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A long-festering conflict over Kirkuk and other disputed territories is threatening to disrupt the current fragile relative peace in Iraq by blocking legislative progress and political accommodation. Two events in particular stand out: a two-month stalemate in July-September in negotiations over a provincial elections law in which Kirkuk’s unresolved status was the principal obstacle and, during this period, a campaign by the Iraqi army in and around the Kurdish-controlled disputed district of Khanaqin. To avoid a breakdown over the issue of Kirkuk, the current piecemeal approach should be discarded in favour of a grand bargain involving all core issues: Kirkuk and other disputed territories, revenue sharing and the hydrocarbons law, as well as federalism and constitutional revisions.

Despite some progress, Iraq’s legislative agenda, promoted by the U.S. in order to capitalise on recent security gains, is bogged down. The main culprit is a dispute over territories claimed by the Kurds as historically belonging to Kurdistan – territories that contain as much as 13 per cent of Iraq’s proven oil reserves. This conflict reflects a deep schism between Arabs and Kurds that began with the creation of modern Iraq after World War I; has simmered for decades, marked by intermittent conflict and accommodation; and was revitalised due to the vacuum and resulting opportunities generated by the Baath regime’s demise in 2003. In its ethnically-driven intensity, ability to drag in regional players such as Turkey and Iran and potentially devastating impact on efforts to rebuild a fragmented state, it matches and arguably exceeds the Sunni-Shiite divide that spawned the 2005-2007 sectarian war.

Numerous reports place the blame squarely on Kurds for inciting the violence against the Christians and Arabs in and around Kirkuk…

As Maliki was quoted recently as saying…

"Investigations have been completed and proved the involvement of Kurdish militias in the displacement and killing of Christians," Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki reportedly said during a discussion with Iraqi lawmakers, according to Osama Al Nojaifi, a deputy in the Iraqi parliament.

Al Nojaifi said Al Maliki had ordered Kurdish units in the Iraqi army out of Mosul but was reluctant to officially announce details of the investigations for fear they would destabilise his government.

From Azzaman…

Arab members of parliament have upped their criticism of Kurdish militia practices in provinces bordering their semi-independent enclave.

Latest accusations include the forcing of 13,000 Arab families to flee the restive Province of Diyala of which Baaquba is the capital.

Kurdish militias are present in larges numbers in the provinces of Diyala, Nineveh, of which Mosul is the capital, and Tameem of which Kirkuk is the capital.

These three provinces are now among the most restive in the country. Many in Iraq now openly blame the Kurds for the rise in the tide of violence in them.

“Kurdish Peshmerga (militias) are supposed to preserve security in these areas but they have forced 13,000 Arab families to flee Diyala,” said Mohammed al-Dayni, an Arab parliamentary deputy.

He said Kurdish militias were in control of government buildings in the three provinces and were determined to bring about “demographic changes” in them.

He said conditions were precarious in the three provinces particularly in Nineveh where thousands of Christian families have fled the provincial capital Mosul.

Most Arab deputies in the parliament oppose Kurdish practices and Dayni said “a broad coalition” is gathering momentum in the parliament to force Kurdish militias to leave the three provinces.

Kurds are adamant to add the oil-rich Kirkuk to their areas and have sent their militias into the city of Mosul and large swathes of Diyala.

Kurdish politician and Deputy Fouad Maasoum denied the accusations.

He said the Kurds were part of the ruling coalition “and it is not logical for us to carry out actions that will be embarrassing for us and distance the Iraqi people from us.”

The Guardian goes on to say…

Kurdish leaders argue Iraq’s constitution gives them the right to absorb Kirkuk and other historically Kurdish-majority areas, in the name of "normalising" demographics skewed under Saddam Hussein by forced removals and a policy of Arabisation.

Today’s ICG report recommends that the only solution to the seemingly intractable problem is an "oil-for-soil" trade-off, in which the Kurds are given the right to manage revenues from their own mineral wealth and receive security guarantees for the existing internal boundary between Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq, in exchange for deferring their claims on Kirkuk for 10 years.

The report warns: "The most likely alternative to an agreement is a new outbreak of violent strife over unsettled claims in a fragmented polity governed by chaos and fear."

Is it any small wonder that the Kurds are gungho on the SOFA, and, Barzani personally visited Shrub to push for it…?

I wonder why Maliki ordered the Kurdish units of the IA out of Mosul…? Ah-ha…!

Prices soar in Mosul as troops mass for new offensive

The government is massing troops in the restive Mosul in preparation for a large-scale offensive to subdue the northern city.

Mosul is Iraq’s second largest city after Baghdad with nearly two million inhabitants.

Thousands of troops with heavy military gear have already been deployed inside the city particularly its western side.

The troops have set up scores of checkpoints and cordoned off neighborhoods in search of suspects.

It will be the third massive military offensive on the city in one year. The previous two, in which large numbers of U.S. occupation troops took part, failed to bring peace to the city.

Security has deteriorated in the city despite the presence of thousands of Kurdish militias known as Peshmerga there. An anti-Christian campaign which has so far been confined to the Kurdish-controlled areas has forced more than 2,500 Christian families to flee.

It is extremely worrying what is going on in Kirkuk and the outlying provinces…

Hopefully, the Kurds will take UNAMI and ICG’s recommendations to heart and seek peaceful means to end the tensions between the Arabs and Kurds as well as the Christians…!