The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has just released a 42 page poll (PDF).
Frank Russo comments on what this latest PPIC poll found regarding Proposition 8:
The results here are almost a carbon copy of the Field Poll and show California voters rejecting Prop 8 which would eliminate same sex marriage rights in California by a margin of 55% to 41%. It is extremely difficult for a measure that has majority opposition in polling at this point to win.
There is a partisan divide here—and the numbers are as lopsided as they are because independents join Democrats in opposing this proposition. Democrats by a 71% to 25% margin oppose it and independents oppose it by 53% to 42%. Republicans support Prop 8 by 62% to 34%. Democratic and Republican voters have the same level of importance to the outcome here whereas it is not as important to independent voters. There is no gender gap. Evangelicals are as likely to vote in favor of Prop 8 (64%) as all others are to vote against it (63%).
And here are the findings of the latest SurveyUSA poll: Yes: 44% / No: 49%.
Jennifer Kerns, spokeswoman for the Yes on 8 campaign, endorsed previous SurveyUSA polling in widely-reported comments made just last month: “We believe polling numbers are more aligned with the recent results of the Los Angeles Times poll and SurveyUSA poll, which shows that Proposition 8 has a slight lead.”
No comment yet from Ms. Kerns on this month's SurveyUSA poll.
No such reticence from Ken Boyd, the area director for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, who steps up to suggest a possible silver lining for the Yes on 8 side: “Just a week or two ago, we were approximately 10 percentage points behind, now we're 5 percentage points behind. So as people gain knowledge, and understanding, especially when they understand the effects, they'll vote 'yes' on Prop 8.”
Nice try, Ken. Here's a clue just in case you truly are unaware of the major problem with your spin: suggesting a trend by comparing two different polls makes you a very poor candidate for guiding others to a greater knowledge and understanding of the real challenge facing Prop 8. If your intended audience knew anything about polling, they'd understand how misleading you're being here, and they'd rightfully resent you for stringing them along.
In terms of the 'effects' you mention … Ken, I've noted the response from rank-and-file Mormons who've picked up on your messaging (i.e., that infamous 'six consequences' alarmist claptrap that you've had a hand in distributing):
Beth Swann said…
Jill, I received the same document but I have it being from Ken Boyd, an Area Director from Kerman. I will e-mail it to you since it has his contact info. on it and you can ask him questions if you like.
BETH…I would very much appreciate that contact info. I'm trying to get to the bottom of this mystery…”who wrote that and where did they get their information?” Protectmarriage.com did have it on their website but they have since pulled it. They said they would contact me yesterday or today and let me know why. So far I have not heard…so yes Beth I would really like to contact this Ken Boyd. Thank you Beth!
In any case, here's my bold prediction: The tally on Nov. 4 will show less than 40% support for Prop 8 from actual voters.
And here are four (very Mormon) reasons why:
I, for one, am looking forward to hearing a lot more from thoughtful Latter Day Saints like the outspoken quartet assembled here (who practice what they preach) … and a whole lot less from “Mormons” like Ken Boyd and this clown…