Even as conservatives like the Minneapolis StarTribune’s very own Katherine Kersten were talking up how The Surge Has Made Everything All Better, a rocket attack on the Green Zone belied the happy talk:

A barrage of rockets hit the Green Zone – landing near the US Embassy – in Baghdad on Sunday morning.

The rockets appear to have been fired from the Shiite militia stronghold neighborhood of Sadr City in what observers see as further evidence that a cease-fire by the group loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr may be unraveling.

[…]

"Yes we confirm there was an IDF (indirect fire) attack in the Green Zone. There were no dead or major casualties," said US Embassy spokesperson Mirembe Nantongo. But she gave no further details. A US military spokesman also declined to comment on the rocket attack, which is the most significant in months. Following the attack, large plumes of black smoke were seen rising from the walled Green Zone, which also houses top Iraqi government officials.

Why is this a big deal?

Because Sadr’s truce, and not the surge, is the main reason why there is still a semblance of pockets of order in the bloody carcass that once was Iraq. Even the mainstream US press comes close to admitting it on occasion — such as last month, when it looked for a while as if the truce might not be extended.

Another key factor: The refusal of the Sunni Sahwa, or "awakening", militia groups to fight for the US unless and until we pay them. Instead, they’ll go back to shooting at us, when they’re not shooting at Sadr’s people and Shia in general.

Bush and McCain were hoping that this excrement wouldn’t be hitting the whirling blades until after January of next year. But as we all know, hope is not a plan.