What’s Up With Wisconsin?
It had been reported that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were both leaving Wisconsin tomorrow, but now it appears Clinton will stay.
In a sign of just how much effort Barack Obama is putting into the Wisconsin primary, he’s vastly outspending Hillary Clinton on ads for the Madison and Milwaukee media markets, which make up the two biggest Democratic strongholds in the state. All in all, Obama has spent $831,880 on TV ads for those two media markets, compared to Hillary’s $180,990 — a 4-1 margin on the spending.
As for the polls, most do show Obama up by 4 or 5 points, within the margin of error. The only exception is the latest ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 6. Good news for Clinton, right? Maybe not. ARG has often released outlier polls that have favored Clinton. In fact, Survey USA’s pollster report card shows ARG with a mean error of almost 8%. Not to mention that this result represents a net gain for Obama of 3% since a poll taken 9 days before. But still, the fact that Clinton is remaining in Wisconsin all day on Monday rather than heading out of the state as Obama is doing does seem to indicate, as we posited yesterday, that she knows something we don’t know. What exactly that is, however, is anyone’s guess.
Obama’s up with the week’s fourth debate-themed ad in Wisconsin, in which the narrator hits "Hillary" (no "Sen. Clinton" here) for playing the "same old politics" and defends Obama’s policy platform.
The four ads sure suggest the issue is getting some traction.
Axelrood and Wolfson were sparring about this on Face the Nation this morning, so Ben Smith may be right.
Update: Obama met with John Edwards in North Carolina today.
Update II: Obama will be campaigning in Ohio on Monday but return to Wisconsin that night for a rally on the eve of the primary.