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Parsing the NH numbers

(For additional good analysis of the numbers, read Liza over at CultureKitchen.)

Take a look at CNN’s exit polling.

Vote by gender:

Clinton: 46% women

Obama: 34% women

Edwards: 15% women

Clinton: 29% men

Obama: 40% men

Edwards: 19% men

Age:

18-24: Clinton: 22, Obama: 60, Edwards: 9%

25-29: Clinton: 37, Obama: 35, Edwards: 18%

30-29: Clinton: 36, Obama: 43, Edwards: 17%

40-49: Clinton: 44, Obama: 33, Edwards: 16%

50-64: Clinton: 39, Obama: 30, Edwards: 21%

65+: Clinton: 48, Obama: 32, Edwards: 16%

The demo with the largest number of voters is the 50-64 category, 31%.

Best chances of winning in November:

Clinton voters: 87%

Obama voters: 70%

Edwards voters: 75%

Overall, Obama bests Clinton at the chance to win in November, 44% to 35%

First-time primary voter:

Clinton: 37%

Obama: 47%

Vote by race (whites, no other groups number enough in NH to really register)

Clinton: 39%

Obama: 36%

I think what I deemed “The Tweety Effectlast night (“where the misogyny of a talking head in the MSM [in this case MSNBC’s Chris Matthews] so enrages a demographic that they go out and vote in a manner that will put egg on the face of the talking head”) definitely moved some numbers. Watch to see if “The Tweety Effect” catches on; Digby cited me.

There are boatloads of other categories slicing the demographics, so check it out.

An interesting DKos diary, What Happened?, goes into the possible ingredients in the recipe for Hillary Clinton’s win since she was behind, sometimes by large margins, in every poll.

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Pam Spaulding

Pam Spaulding

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