TBogg

Great Moments in Knowing Nothing About Polling

The truth about poles

Dan Riehl on 10/29/o6:

WaPo Skews Poll Against Steele

Updated: What a crock.

Obviously the WaPo had the poll done precisely for the headline “Democrats Lead” ten days out from the election. And the party ID numbers below are all from Maryland, not national numbers. They over sampled Democrats by 8 points based upon voting trends just two years ago.

The Washington Post has released a new poll purporting to show Michael Steele trailing Ben Cardin by eleven points in the Maryland Senate race.

Cardin Steele
10/26/06 LV 54 43

The poll of likely voters over sampled Democrats by 8 points based upon election results from 2004.

Party affiliation for the new WaPo poll:

Dem. Rep. Ind. Something else No opinion
10/26/06 RV 56 30 11 3 1

Party affiliation as per exit polling in 2004, which in itself may have been a skewed sample given that the exit polls were so far off the mark in many states:

Democrat (48%)

Republican (30%)

Independent (22%)

A recent Rassmussen poll had Cardin up by 5, while a Survey USA poll had the race tied – via Real Clear Politics. With two seemingly skewed WaPo polls in the RCP average adjusted and including the two other polls, it’s quite possible the race is a dead heat.

Of course, as you can see, Dan was right and the race was much more dead-heatier than those pricks at the Washington Post let on:

Steele 684,618 (43.7%)
Cardin 855,563 (54.7%)

That’s .7 percent better for Steele, bitches.

Advantage, Riehl.

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Yeah. Like I would tell you....