CommunityPam's House Blend

MSNBC poll: the GOP is in trouble

And Little Ricky shall lead them into the waste treatment center. A MSNBC/McClatchy poll shows that the races are going to be nail biters, but there will be dancing in the streets of homo havens everywhere as Man-On-Dog hasn’t managed to scare enough bigots into supporting him.

* Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum still trails challenger Bob Casey, now by 13 points — he’s outta there — unless he’s on a Diebold savior list.

Some other Senate races:

* Rhode Island: Chafee (R) 46%/Whitehouse (D) 45%.

* Missouri, McCaskill (D) 46%/Talent (R) 45%.

* Montana: toss up, 47% for corrupt Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and Jon Tester (D). Five percent undecided.

* Ohio: Brown (D) 50%/Dewine (R) 44%. 5 percent undecided.

* Virginia: Webb (D) 46%/Allen (R) 45%. Will “Macaca” go down, or will the fundie marriage amendment turnout keep him afloat?

* Maryland: Cardin (D) 47%/ 44% Steele (R). 9% undecided — Steele has desperately tried to distance himself from Chimpy

* Tennessee: playing the race card has been fruitful for the GOP here, as Rethug Bob Corker has a 12-percentage point lead over Harold Ford Jr., 50% to 38% with 9 percent still undecided. The polls had been within the margin of error in late October. With Ford strongly on the record as a homophobe, this is a lesser-of-two-evils vote, or an abstention. A marriage amendment is on the ballot here.

The trend:

* Four Republican incumbents essentially tied with their challengers: Allen, Burns, Chafee and Talent. Four toss-ups that could turn into Democratic gains.
* Three Democratic incumbents with leads: Cantwell, Menendez, and Stabenow.
* One Republican incumbent ahead of his challenger: Kyl.
* One Republican open seat with the Republican leading, Tennessee.
* One open Democratic seat virtually tied: Maryland.

***

UPDATE: To add to GOP misery, Time’s new poll shows Republicans are less enthusiastic about voting than Dems. And better yet, the evangelicals are abandoning ship.

Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME’s poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they’ll support Democrats.

Let’s pile on with more findings — the poll shows white men are slipping away as well.

Males provided much of the Bush victory margin in 2004: the President took 55% of the male vote while John Kerry won 44%, according to exit polls. For the 2006 midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting Republican candidates and 47% Democrats.

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Pam Spaulding

Pam Spaulding