ABC News reports tonight that Iran has shipped improved explosive devices capable of defeating the body armor employed by US soldiers to the insurgents in Iraq.
If this can be substantiated, it will present the Bush administration with a casus belli that opens up both a can of worms and a wide range of options that may have been out of reach before this.
The bad news is that the US military has a lot on its plate right now, attempting to train the Iraqi army quickly enough to start drawing down troops by the end of the year, when domestic politics demands that some real progress be shown. Attempting to broaden the conflict at this point towards Iran can complicate that effort, especially in regards to Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, with its heavy inclination towards Teheran. The bombing in Samarra made tensions escalate enough in Baghdad; an attack on Sadr’s client could either cow him into submission or cause him to erupt in an attempt to draw American fire from Iran.
Also, after the political warfare at home for the past three years, the conclusions of intelligence experts will not likly carry much weight when it comes to another casus belli. The virulent anti-war movement may get stronger with another expedition of American force. That impulse will multiply if the White House lacks allies for the fight, and right now it doesn’t look very good for convincing Europe to target Iran for any reason. We may hang onto Britain and Australia and a few Eastern European countries for diplomatic support, but that will probably be the extent.
Later, he saw a REAL wolf prowling about his flock. Alarmed, he leaped to his feet and sang out as loudly as he could, “Wolf! Wolf!”
But the villagers thought he was trying to fool them again, and so they didn’t come.
At sunset, everyone wondered why the shepherd boy hadn’t returned to the village with their sheep. They went up the hill to find the boy. They found him weeping.
“There really was a wolf here! The flock has scattered! I cried out, “Wolf!” Why didn’t you come?”
An old man tried to comfort the boy as they walked back to the village.
“We’ll help you look for the lost sheep in the morning,” he said, putting his arm around the youth, “Nobody believes a liar…even when he is telling the truth!”
(Image courtesy of takebackthemedia)