Bush is getting hit on the Iraq mess, but it isn’t reflected in any polls yet. I think this will make a turn on the next round From the NY:
“About 80 percent of respondents said that Mr. Bush was either ‘hiding something’ or ‘mostly lying’ in talking about the war in Iraq. A plurality of voters disapproved of how he had managed the war. But the disapproval was not as sharp as it was before the handover of power to an Iraqi government in June, even though Mr. Kerry has turned up his attacks on Mr. Bush’s handling of the war and the American death toll recently passed 1,000.
A plurality said Iraq had produced more casualties than originally expected.
This poll and several others in recent days with differing findings have suggested that the electorate is in flux. Alternatively, the different results may reflect how difficult it is to poll a closely divided public, particularly when answering machines, caller identification devices and cellphones make people harder to reach on their home telephones. “